Bush Wins Delaware. Now What?

Whew!

That sums up the reaction of Texas Gov. George Bush and his large organization to their win in Delaware's Republican primary.

Some version of "Hooray and hot damn" pretty much sums up the reaction of Arizona Senator John McCain and his smaller but getting bigger-by-the-day-outfit.

For the Republican equivalent of the Mad Bomber, Steve Forbes, just "Damn!" pretty much says it all. The conservative publisher dropped out of the GOP race following his poor showing.

Here's why:

Bush and his people were shaking like cafeteria Jell-O at the possibility they might wind up with less than fifty percent of the Delaware vote. Before their New Hampshire humiliation, Team Bush believed Delaware was a gut cinch - not just a big win, but a huge one.

After New Hampshire, they remained confident they would win Delaware - and probably win big - but knew that anything under fifty percent would hurt. They would be perceived as weak and wobbling.

After all, they had poured money and effort over a long period into a tiny state, they had almost all of Delaware's Republican establishment behind them, the Bush name has been big in Delaware since the current Bush's grandfather was a revered Senator years ago in nearby Connecticut, and John McCain has spent no time and no money in this race.

Besides all that, only Republicans could vote in the Delaware primary. None of that anybody-who-chooses-to-vote-can business that allowed independents and even Democrats to ballot in New Hampshire's GOP showdown. And, bonus time, Delaware Republicans generally, overwhelmingly, consider themselves "conservatives" and Bush's forces knew from polling that their man was considered to be more "conservative" than McCain with Republicans at large.

But McCain roared out of New Hampshire with so much momentum and buzz, well, who knew what the hell was going to happen. So thought the Bushmen.

So they sweated. And worked like men possessed to get out their vote. And hoped against hope that when the returns came in their man would be above fifty percent.

They got it. When it was assured, they, in effect, high-fived, slumped into their high chairs and murmured "on to South Carolina."

Before New Hampshire's vote, McCain and his people thought about Delaware only slightly more than they thought about Togo. They didn't think about it much more even after their New Hampshire surprise.

"Doesn't matter" was their general attitude. Which doesn't mean they didn't begin to hope about it. They began to believe that maybe, just maybe, they would finish second there, on the basis of momentum and attention stemming from the New Hampshire stunner.

They got it. When it was assured, they, in effect, leaped from their seats, shouted "Hallelujah" and began anew South Carolina dreaming.

Delaware's primary will be little noted and not long remembered. Before the trail goes completely cold, here are some things both major candidats will be pondering.

With only registered Republicans allowed to vote in the closed primary, only about 6 percent of Delaware's total eligible voting population cast a ballot. Of those, a majority told exit pollers they considered themselves to be "conservative" and Bush got nearly two-thirds of the "conservative" Republican vote. McCain ran third among those conservatives.

Good news for Bush. He won a strictly Republican primary, and he swamped McCain among the more conservative Republicans - the kind of Republicans who vote heaviest in every primary.

Among those Delaware Republicans who classified themselves as something other than straight-out "conservative" - more "independent" or some other characterization - McCain did better.

The biggest reason those who voted for Bush gave for doing so was their belief that he would make the best candidate, and stood the best chance of winning against a Democrat in November.

Not such good news for Bush and a glimmer of promise for McCain. McCain's blowout win over Bush in the New Hampshire primary, in which non-Republican independents and swing voters went strong for McCain, plus his recent surge among all voters in South Carolina polls and now his surprisingly strong second place finish in Delaware, buttresses McCain's argument that he, not Bush, would be stronger GOP contender in November.

Now, if - still a big "if" - he can win in South Carolina, McCain may pierce deeply Bush's most formidable armor, his "I'm your best chance to win the presidency" argument.

Keep in mind that the South Carolina Republican primary February 19 is an open one. Unlike Delaware and like New Hampshire, party registration doesn't count in South Carolina.

South Carolina independents, swing voters and even some Democrats can vote in the Republican primary. Which, to say the least, figures to help McCain a lot.

Should McCain beat Bush in South Carolina he could roar out of there immediately into the Michigan and Arizona primaries three days later with enormously increased credibility to his argument that "I'm really your best pony for the horse race in November", when national independents and swing voters probably will be decisive.

To recapitulate: If Bush follows his Delaware win with another in South Carolina, he will not have finished McCain but will have stopped his momentum, wounded him severely for the long pull, and will be in position to kill off his chances soon.

If McCain wins in South Carolina, he will have accelerated his momentum, wounding Bush seriously, but will still face an uphill struggle to overcome Bush's money and organization in the South, Midwest and West.

Whoever wins in South Carolina, California now figures to be decisive.

March 7 Super Tuesday: Lots of states, including California and New York, with primaries. McCain's on the ballot in New York, Bush having backed down from his early (successful) effort to keep McCain off most New ork ballots. Bush and his Yale classmate, Gov. George Pataki, had the fix in. But they got worried about a backlash after New Hampshire and gave it up.

McCain is gaining ground in the Empire State, according to the latest polls. But he's still an underdog. That leaves California.

With Bush or McCain, Republicans figure they'll carry the South and southern border states in November. That plus California would virtually assure them of the White House. That's the way Ronald Reagan did it the first time (1980), and the GOP thirsts for a repeat with the same formula.

Without California, November will be more problematical for them. So nationally, Republicans will be keying heavily off the March 7 California primary. Plus, lest we forget, California is a winner-take-all primary, 162 nominating convention votes, the largest of any state, to the victor.

Look 'em over and add it up. Inescapable: Delaware matters little. South Carolina matters a lot. For the Republican Big Two, California is now the Big Burrito.