Bush, Gore On Top In N.Y.

With one week to go before the key New York presidential primary, George W. Bush is holding on to a small lead over John McCain in the contest for the Republican party nomination, while Al Gore maintains a huge lead over Bill Bradley among registered Democrats. The prospects for the candidates in the Empire State have changed little in the last week, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

McCain fares better with those registered Republicans who say they will definitely vote in next Tuesday's primary and among those paying the closest attention to the campaign. And McCain's voters are more likely than Bush's voters to say their minds are made up and won't change. Overall, more than half of Republican voters could still change their minds.

OPEN VS. CLOSED PRIMARIES

Voters in New York State like the idea of an open primary. By nearly two to one, New York voters say that party primaries should be open to those not registered with the party. Even New York's registered Republicans divide on this question: 51 percent favor open primaries, 46 percent favor closed primaries. Democrats and independents overwhelmingly support open primaries.

In fact, by 56 percent to 43 percent, New York Republicans think their party's primary this year SHOULD be open to any registered voter.

	Bush	McCain	Keyes
NY RepublicanPrimary Vote Among Likely Republican Voters	46%	36%	3%
	Gore	Bradley
NY Democratic Primary Vote Among Likely Democratic Voters	55%	29%

There are, however, mixed feelings about why registered Democrats would vote in Republican primaries. Republicans, in particular, think that Democrats who vote in a Republican primary would be more likely to do so as a means of hurting the Republican nominating process and helping the Democratic nominee, rather than because tey genuinely support one of the Republican candidates. On the other hand, voters mostly agreed that a candidate who appealed to Democrats and Independents in the primary would also attract Democrats and independents in the fall

CATHOLICS AND BOB JONES UNIVERSITY

Many New York Republicans have no opinion about George W. Bush's visit to Bob Jones University before the South Carolina primary earlier this month. Half said they had heard little or nothing about it. But those with an opinion generally support Bush's visit there.

However, Catholic Republicans are more closely divided on the subject. And what was a small lead for Bush among Catholic Republican voters a week ago has now turned into a small lead for his opponent John McCain. But about one in six Catholics have yet to make up their minds. Catholics make up nearly half of Republican primary voters and could make a difference in a close contest.

THE PATAKI BUMP

Bush's establishment support in New York is giving him a slight boost. Only 21 percent of Republican primary voters say that Governor George Pataki's endorsement of Bush will affect their vote. But at the same time, among this fifth of primary voters, over two-thirds support Bush.

CANDIDATE CHARACTER

The candidates' images have changed little in the past week, despite the intervening wins by McCain last Tuesday in Michigan and Arizona. McCain remains more popular than Bush overall, and especially among independents and Democrats. Thirty-four percent of registered independents, and 29 percent of registered Democrats view McCain favorably, compared to 16 percent and 9 percent respectively for Bush. Among registered Republicans, 38 percent view McCain favorably, and 36 percent view Bush favorably.

Among likely Republican primary voters the candidates are viewed similarly on a host of character issues, although the Bush campaign is viewed as slightly more negative. Forty percent of Republican primary voters think Bush has spent more time on the attack than explaining his positions, while 34 percent believe that about McCain.

WHO BETTER TO BEAT DEMOCRATS IN NOVEMBER?

Despite the closeness of the race and the candidates' positive images, most Republican primary voters view Bush as the candidate best- positioned to win in November.

Fifty-one percent of primary voters say Bush has the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee, while only 32 percent say McCain has. Even 1 in 10 McCain supporters think Bush would be the better general election candidate.

Gore continues as the stronger character in the Democratic race, despitBradley's history in the New York/New Jersey area. Democratic primary voters are more likely to trust Gore to keep his word as president: 62 percent think Gore can be trusted, while 50 percent think Bradley can.

And Democratic primary voters view Bradley as the more negative candidate: 37 percent think Bradley has spent more time attacking than explaining his positions on the issues, while only 27 percent think the same about Gore.