Bush Cruises In California
George W. Bush is still golden where it counts in California.
New polls put Bush ahead of GOP rival John McCain among California Republicans by 11 to 25 percentage points.
The latest numbers also suggest McCain's momentum from his primary wins in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Arizona may have peaked in the Golden State.
There are 162 GOP delegates are up for grabs in California's winner-take-all contest on March 7 - a huge slice of the Super Tuesday round of presidential primaries. While the primary is open to all voters, there's a catch. Only votes from registered Republicans will decide who nabs all of the state's GOP delegates.
So the new poll numbers bode well for Bush. A Field Poll released Monday gave the Texas Governor a 48 to 28 percent lead over McCain with GOP voters. On Sunday, The San Francisco Examiner/KTVU-TV survey showed Bush leading McCain among those voters, 41 to 30 percent. And a Time/CNN poll released a day earlier found Bush leading McCain those voters, 48 to 23 percent.
Still, Bush is far from home free in the state that Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon called home. The Field Poll shows Bush and McCain in a statistical tie among California's Democrats and independents - the type of crossover voters who've made McCain's wins happen. That stokes the possible scenario of Bush winning the state's GOP delegates, only to see McCain prevail in the primary's popular vote.
At this point, Bush's chances in California in the general election look rockier than McCain's. The Field Poll gives Vice President Al Gore a 51 to 41 percent lead over Bush. But in the same survey, McCain tops Gore, 48 to 41 percent.
Even so, the Arizona senator has his work cut out for him in California - a state he has long said is crucial to his success. According to the Field Poll, McCain surged in the state after he won New Hampshire, but his numbers haven't budged in three weeks. And his aides say their internal polling shows him lagging by about 10 points.
McCain spokesman Dan Schnur said the senator will use the next week to close the gap among California Republicans by personally delivering his reform message.
"Republican voters for the next 10 days are going to realize that John McCain is the candidate who can return them to the White House after eight years of Clinton-Gore," Schnur said.
In the Democratic contest, the new polls show Vice President Al Gore retains a commanding lead over former Senator Bill Bradley.
Gore led Bradley 59 percent to 22 percent among registered Democrats in the Examiner-KTVU poll. In the Field Poll, the spread is 54-16 percent.
There are 434 Democratic delegates at stake in California's primary contest.
The Field Poll was conducted Tuesday through Sunday. It surveyed 1,447 registered voters. The margin of error among likely voters is 3.2 percentage points. Among likely Democratic voters, the margin of error is 4.5 percentage points. Amon likely Republican voters, it is 5 percentage points.
The Examiner/KTVU poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It was taken between Monday and Wednesday among 803 Californians who say they regularly vote. Among Republican voters only, the margin of error is 6 percentage points, because the sample size is smaller.
And the Time/CNN poll involved 1,009 likely California primary voters, contacted Thursday and Friday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.