Bush Brain Trust Blows It
In this Reality Check,
CBS News Correspondent Eric Engberg says independent voters are shaping Campaign 2000 earlier than any previous presidential race.
The Republican Party establishment had it all orchestrated for George W.
Bush months ago.
The Texas governor waltzes, or two-steps, through early primary states specially picked because the Establishment can deliver them. The rest would be child's play.
Time Out!
The establishment plan played right into the hands of Arizona Senator John McCain.
The Bush brain trust failed to gauge the power of the independent voter, who from Ross Perot to Jesse Ventura is turning politics on its head.
McCain's landslide in New Hampshire was powered by independents, who went for him by a huge margin - 61 to 19 percent.
"I think that opens the door to John McCain in states that let voters to do this, that let voters choose which primary they want to vote in," said CBS News Director of Surveys Kathleen Frankovic
Thirty-four states let non-party members vote in primaries and caucuses.
The two states up next, South Carolina on Feb. 19 and Michigan on Feb. 22, are likely to see a big independent turnout, and even registered Democrats voting in the GOP primary - all McCain's kind of people.
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"Let's get everyone out to vote and participate in this process," McCain has said on the campaign trail. "I am a proud Republican. I obviously appreciate those of independents, libertarians, vegetarians, and anybody else."
Independents could also be a deciding factor in the March 7 Super Tuesday Republican contests, where 11 states - including the biggest, California - allow non-party members to vote.
The new model independents tend to be young, moderate and reform-minded. They are so hard to predict that many pollsters missed the size of McCain's New Hampshire win.
"We're seeing what is the hardest thing to do in American politics, which is to change the composition of the primary electorate to bring in new people," said McCain campaign pollster Bill McInturff.
Parties once nominated in smoke-filled rooms. Reform led to closed primaries where only party members could vote. What appears to be happening now is something many pols view with dread: people who are just people are elbowing their way into the nomination process.
See Eric Engberg'interview with McCain pollster Bill McInturff.