Beware Those Crystal Balls
The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post have virtually conceded the presidential nominations to Governor George Bush and Vice President Al Gore.
You read their news columns and their analyses these past few days, and by any reasonable interpretation what they are saying is: Gore already has his nominating race won. And come Tuesday, "Super Tuesday," Bush will close John McCain out.
What they've concluded is that for all practical purposes, it's over and done. And that while McCain and Bradley may hang on and hang around a little longer, both are -- for major party nominating purposes -- what the Mafia calls "walking corpses." That is, they're dead, but don't know it.
The Times, the Journal, and The Washington Post aren't the only ones. Much of the rest of the press, print and electronic, have the same assessments.
About Gore, there is no question they are correct. But what about McCain? Does he have any chance now or are his hopes gone, buried under the avalanche of what didn't happen for him in the most recent voting in Virginia, North Dakota, and Washington state?
The answer is "yes", McCain does still have a sliver of a shot. Only a slim, quivering chance. But a chance, at least to keep his hopes alive past Tuesday's big showdown. How? Well, in simplest terms, by winning two of the biggest three states voting Tuesday: New York, Ohio, and California.
McCain upsets and wins two of those three, he comes out of Tuesday with a fighting chance for at least another week or so. If he loses two of those three, the nomination is Bush's.
Mind you, Bush and his people are convinced that McCain will win none of the three. At most, they figure, McCain will get only one. That's why they are already quietly and privately celebrating (although they will never admit that).
They're convinced that you will sooner see the Rio Grande run uphill than see McCain win all three. Deep down, they're pretty sure THEY get all three, believing that California and Ohio are virtual cinches for them and that while New York may be close a complicated ballot situation and the Republican machine of Gov. George Pataki will pull Bush home a winner there, too.
This is pretty much how the Times, the Journal, the Washington Post, and other major press outlets also figure it.
We will soon see.
Part of the argument that McCain still has a thin chance goes this way:
1. Polls this primary and caucus season have been even less dependable than usual. Which is to say they have been wrong a lot. So far this has been one of the most volatile and unpredictable nominating seasons on record.
2. Unusually large numbers of voters have been turning out in previous balloting this year, with unusually big percentages of them making up their minds in the last days and hours before voting. This has sometimes avored Bush and sometimes McCain. If the pattern holds Tuesday, who can say which candidate will benefit where.
So, in summary, if you must bet on Tuesday's outcome you have to wager that Bush buries McCain. But best not to bet the rent money. Still too risky. And when results begin coming in thick and fast from all over Tuesday night, concentrate on New York, Ohio, and California. They'll tell the tale.