As The 2008 Coverage Floodgates Open, Some Advice
When Hillary Clinton made her entrance into the presidential race, you had to figure it would make a little bit of news. So it's no surprise that last week's Talk Show Index, produced by the Project for Excellence in Journalism, showed that the 2008 presidential race had become a major topic of conversation. We do seem to have hit warp speed in the race for the White House over the past couple of weeks with a slew of candidates jumping in on both sides of the aisle (and at least one, John Kerry, opting out.)
We're already being bombarded with news from Iowa and New Hampshire, national horserace polling, Hollywood fundraisers and, yes, even political ads. Money, polls and ads – yep, the campaign is off and running. Even for those who aren't political junkies, it's a pretty exciting time. But you get the feeling we're all going to be pretty tired of it all in short order.
That's why I wanted to offer news consumers a few campaign '08 survival tips.
The Only Polls That Count: With all due respect to our national media organizations, these polls showing John McCain or Rudy Giuliani battling it out with Hillary Clinton are almost meaningless. Reflected in them is the fact that nationally recognized figures are, well, nationally recognized. It's mildly informative that at this moment in time, Clinton appears to be capable of winning a national election and becoming the nation's first woman president. But given her profile over the past decade, is that really news?
But we're a year away from the primaries and plenty will happen between now and when voters start participating next year. At the same time, don't put too much stock in the national numbers if they should begin to fall for one candidate or another. Polls are simply a snapshot in time and can rise and fall depending on events. The average over time is a much better indicator.
State polls, especially those in places like Iowa and New Hampshire are slightly better indicators, simply because people there tend to take their role as early voters seriously. They are more likely to have had one-on-one contact with candidates and be more informed about their positions. Even these polls, however, need to be watched carefully. Make sure the numbers you're hearing about are from reputable pollsters, not from a competing campaign or interest group with an agenda.
There's Many A Slip Twixt Cup And Lip: This campaign is going to be a long one and if there's one thing we can count on it's surprises. Someone, or more likely several someones, are going to make mistakes -- say something they shouldn't or be the victim of some unflattering photography. Some of those instances will be important, some won't.
Given the 24-7 news cycle, it's not always going to be easy making that judgment, but it's important to try. In 2004, Howard Dean uttered a strange scream as he tried to rally his supporters after a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses. As reported several weeks later, that scream was blown way out of proportion by the television set-up because the audio was being fed directly to the cameras.
It was striking to hear it that way, but those inside the loud room barely heard it at all. Dean was trying to be heard above the din but it came across as some sort of primal, guttural, out-of-control yell. In fact, journalists watching from in front of the stage were unaware of the scream until well after they had landed in New Hampshire that night. In the meantime, it was being played in a constant loop all over the media. Hardly an important moment, but it became a defining one.
On the other hand, when Sen. George Allen uttered his infamous "macaca" insult, we learned something about him as a candidate. Even putting the actual meaning aside (a racial slur that probably not one person in attendance understood,) the episode said something about the candidate. It demonstrated an inability to deal with a fairly simple issue. Allen first tried to shrug it off, then offered some hard-to-believe excuses, an apology of sorts, then indignation. It may not have changed anyone's minds as to Allen's attitudes but it certainly made his competence an issue.
Not all such incidents are equally important, don't let media focus decide that for you.
Be Independent: Whether you're a hard-core conservative or a lifelong Democrat, paying attention to the issues and the what candidates are really saying can help you avoid a sense of disappointment down the road. Our free press is an invaluable tool for staying informed but it can also act as a megaphone for talking points, spin and obfuscation coming out of campaigns.
An accusation or response from one camp or another is included in news stories, then finds its way onto blogs and radio and television talk shows. Pretty soon, everyone is repeating the same things over and over and the real issue disappears. Bumper sticker slogans are used by campaigns because they're an effective way to communicate an overall message, but it's no way for voters to make decisions. Do yourself a favor, step back and take an impartial look at what's not being talked about in these kinds of exchanges.
Laugh A Little: It's easy to laugh at the opposition, especially when they're caught in a politically uncomfortable position. But it doesn't hurt to laugh at your own horse from time to time – or at least pay attention to what others are laughing about.
Once upon a time, Johnny Carson served as the chief tickler of the nation's funny bone, now there are a number of outlets for political humor. Sure, Conan O'Brien's jabs can be downright hilarious and Jon Stewart has become a cultural icon -- but they're helping give voice to widespread beliefs and perceptions. Like any humor, their jokes work because there is some truth to them. And that only adds to our understanding of how the country tends to look at our individual leaders.
Besides, how are we supposed to get through the long, hard slog ahead if we can't have a few laughs along the way?