Politics

Arizona By The Numbers

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

February 22, 2000 / 10:54 PM EST / CBS

John McCain won the Arizona primary by a comfortable margin, despite a strong effort by George W. Bush to challenge the senator on his home turf. Arizona Republican primary voters expressed positive feelings toward Bush, but in the end they just liked their local candidate more. Using exit poll data, Monika McDermott of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit examines McCain's victory.

The Voterssize>color>

McCain beat Bush among virtually all demographic groups, trailing only among the most conservative voters. Only voters who identified themselves as very conservative chose Bush over McCain by a margin of 53 percent to 36 percent. Voters who identified themselves as only somewhat conservative, however, went for McCain by 56 percent to 39 percent. Even voters aligned with the conservative Christian right divided their votes between the two top contenders: 45 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Bush.

The Candidatessize>color>

Sixty-three percent of Republican primary voters said they view Bush favorably. But the lure of their favorite son was too strong: 38 percent of those who have a favorable impression of Bush voted for McCain. In contrast, among the 71 percent who view McCain favorably, only 20 percent voted for Bush. Among those voters who view both candidates favorably, McCain beat Bush 61 percent to 35 percent.

Unlike in South Carolina, voters in Arizona appreciated McCain's maverick style. Forty-nine percent of self-identified Republicans said they preferred a candidate not tied to Republican Party leaders, and 68 percent of these voters supported McCain. Voters also went to the polls looking for a candidate who stands up for what he believes, and McCain was their choice. Thirty-three percent of voters said standing up for his beliefs was the most important candidate quality to them, and 68 percent of them chose McCain.

In further good news for McCain, the voters who know him the best expressed confidence in his fitness for the country's top job: 75 percent of Arizona's Republican primary voters said they think McCain has the temperament to serve effectively as President.

The CBS News Arizona Exit Poll was conducted among 2,442 voters as they left the polls February 22. The margin of sampling error could be plus or minus 2 percentage points for results based on the entire sample. The sampling error for subgroups may be higher.