Archive: Linda DiVall
GOP pollster and consultant Linda DiVall has the answers to your questions. DiVall was the first female pollster in the Republican Party to strike out on her own and start a national survey research company. Veteran CBS News White House Correspondent Bill Plante brings a top political expert into the Smoke-Filled Room each week to answer your questions:
Plante: Our first viewer, MWilliams asks “What do you think the odds are that a woman will be picked as a Vice Presidential running mate? Who do you think would be chosen, and by what party?”
DiVall: The odds favor the GOP picking a woman V.P. Why? Because we have a number of qualified women who would be significant assets for Governor Bush starting with Elizabeth Dole who possesses star power and has impeccable credentials in terms of government service and personal integrity, Governor Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey and others such as Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn of Washington, Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine. If Bush names a woman my sense is he does so from a position of strength not weakness - he is already doing quite well with women and this would just send a signal of his commitment to an improved performance and demonstrate his intent to showcase a "new Republican Party."
Plante: Given the Republican Party establishment's lack of acknowledgement of Sen. McCain's conservative credentials and the Senator's lack of state level party organization, what should haven the overall strategy in communicating his true conservative principles and capturing state level support. Kevin Kasson is curious.
DiVall: Senator McCain ran an excellent campaign but it is puzzling that they weren't able to articulate his conservative credentials up front. However, I don't think one can argue with the success they enjoyed based on the integrity and candor of the candidate and their showcasing of reform issues. I think they demonstrated that their media base was able in some cases to trump organization - unfortunately for them, in a presidential contest some level or party based organization is an imperative to victory.
Plante: Chris R says "Let's say that George W. won and you were asked to come up with three candidates for each of the following cabinet positions; Defense, Treasury and State - who would your choices be?"
DiVall: Well, first of all I would never be in the position of advising the Presidential nominee whom to select. George W. Bush has excellent rapport with party stalwarts who will be more than eager to serve in his administration. The problem with a list is leaving someone out who is an obvious name and has talent for the position. However, with Defense and State the following names would surely be on every list: Colin Powell, Dick Cheney, Condelezza Rice and Senator Richard Lugar. Treasury is an interesting quetion. Does the person come from Wall Street, the investment community or personal friendship with Governor Bush?
Plante: The GOP chairman and advisors are trying to link Vice President Al Gore and Mrs. Clinton to Al Sharpton. Will this work, and what affect will this have on the election? Is this very similar to the Willie Horton strategy used by the late Lee Atwater? Matthew would to know.
DiVall: See the RNC web site on the links to Gore and Sharpton. Sharpton is suing the RNC but it will be difficult for Gore or HRC to disavow and connections to Sharpton, who has clearly incited riots, inflamed volatile situations and remains a very divisive figure.
Plante: Andrea Pisani asks “According to the latest polls, what does the public feel are the most important issues of today?”
DiVall: The most important issues of the day remain remarkably stable over the past year. Those issues are: restoring moral values, improving the quality of public education, health care, protecting and reforming Social Security, tax relief, Medicare reform and to a lesser extent concern for the environment, crime and drugs, urban sprawl and growth issues.
Plante: Kfran would like to know "who would win a 4 way race between Bush, Gore, McCain (as an Independent) and Buchanan (Reform party)?"
DiVall: McCain would certainly not win in a four way race against Buchanan, Bush and Gore as the GOP vote would be totally fragmented thus catapulting Gore into the White House. Furthermore, under the scenario described McCain would lack a legitimate political party with funding to wage a legitimate race.
Plante: Liz asks “What do you think of George W. ‘smirk factor?’ Is this a real issue and could it hurt him?”
DiVall: I read an interesting quote in the Washington Post this weekend where an unnamed close personal friend said that George W. Bush came out of the womb with a smirk. I see it more as a playful grin from a man totally comfortable with who he is and at peace with himself. The real question is how to voters view it - as something disarming or disabling. I'm sure we will be able to analyze countless meaningless polls on this very question. The point remains that at this time, George W. Bush is the more likeable candidate and that's what counts.
Plante: ”Do you think Republicans will continue to control the House and Senate?” wonders Tom C.
DiVall: The GOP will continue to control the U.S. Senate and the battle in the House will be very competitive. GOP chances to continuing to control the House have improved immeasurably over the past six months. Don't believe any predictions you may hear at this early juncture. This won't be decided until the wee hours of Election Day - and maybe not until the next day when absentee ballots are counted in Washingon and California.
Plante: Cindywould like to know "What factor will the women’s vote play in the Presidential election. They usually seem to prefer the Democratic platform on social issues."
DiVall: Well, as the so-called expert on the gender gap I like GOP opportunities this year to perform substantially better with women. As I said earlier, Bush is a likeable candidate, he is talking about issues that women care about (education and environment in the last week alone), he has an engaging personality and he does not come across as a meanspirited, intolerant Republican. Therefore, it will be difficult for Gore and his cronies to portray him that way. Look for signs of Gore's problems with men there may be a reverse gender gap in this election.
Plante: The last question comes from Carl. “Who do you think will win the New York Senate race?”
DiVall: The winner will be the one who makes the least mistakes last! No prediction there.
Credits: