Angry Liberals Help Kerry Clean Up

CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott analyzes John Kerry's impressive primary performance.

According to CBS News exit polls in Tuesday's five primary elections, Kerry's perceived ability to defeat President Bush in November continued to be his strong suit.

Overall, primary voters seem comfortable with the idea that Kerry may eventually win the nomination. In all of Tuesday's exit polls, overwhelming majorities of voters – even those supporting other candidates – expressed satisfaction with the prospect of a Kerry nomination.

Separately, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards emerged as Kerry's biggest challenger on the strength of his perceived empathy with voters, and on the issue of the economy and jobs.

And retired Gen. Wesley Clark mounted a strong showing in Oklahoma by appealing to a broad spectrum of voters there, and benefiting from his military experience among voters concerned with national security and the war in Iraq.

John Kerry

John Kerry's perceived electability continued to win substantial support from Democratic primary voters. Overall, voters said that a candidate's positions on the issues were more important to them than finding a candidate who could beat Mr. Bush. But among the segment of the Democratic electorate who prized a candidate who could win in November, Kerry was the clear favorite.

In Missouri, 37 percent of voters said that beating Mr. Bush was more important to them than issues. And among these primary voters, Kerry received 68 percent of the vote. Similarly, in Delaware, four in ten voters said that winning in November was more important to issues, and Kerry carried these voters with 71 percent.

Beating Mr. Bush was more of a priority for liberals, as they expressed anger with the Bush administration. Forty-four percent of liberals in Delaware said that beating Mr. Bush was more important than issues, and 61 percent described themselves as angry with the Bush administration.

Similarly, 43 percent of liberals in Missouri said that beating Mr. Bush was more important to them than issues, and 53 percent of them described themselves as angry.

These liberal primary voters gave Kerry solid support. In both Delaware and Missouri Kerry easily carried liberals – winning 50 percent and 51 percent respectively. He also carried liberals in Arizona and split the liberal vote with Clark in Oklahoma.

Kerry's appeal was not limited to liberals, however. He performed strongly among other core Democratic groups as well. In Arizona, Kerry won Hispanic voters, a more moderate to conservative group, with 42 percent of the vote.

And Kerry easily won the African-American vote in Delaware and Missouri, splitting the black vote with Edwards in South Carolina and with Clark in Oklahoma.

Labor voters also showed support for Kerry throughout the primary states. He won over half of union members' votes in Delaware and Missouri. In addition, he split union members with Edwards in South Carolina, polling more strongly among these voters than he did overall.

Despite his status as a decorated Vietnam veteran, Kerry did not do as well as might have been expected among voters who served in the military. In South Carolina, Kerry lost to Edwards among veterans, 42-33 percent. And even in states he carried comfortably, like Missouri and Delaware, Kerry did not poll much better among veterans than among the primary electorate in general.

Even though Kerry did not carry every state, the vast majority of primary voters in the exit polls, including those supporting other candidates, seemed comfortable with the idea of John Kerry as the Democratic nominee.

In South Carolina, eight in ten primary voters, including nearly three-quarters of Edwards' voters, said they would be satisfied if Kerry were to eventually win the nomination. And in Oklahoma, nearly three-quarters of primary voters said they would be satisfied with a Kerry win. At least eight in ten voters in each of the remaining states said they would be satisfied if Kerry won.

John Edwards

Typical Southern Democratic voters – moderates and conservatives, whites and Protestants – fueled Edwards' victory in South Carolina. And voters there viewed him as someone who cares about them, something they were looking for in a candidate.

Twenty-nine percent of Edwards' voters said they selected him because he cares about people like them, and another 21 percent said they chose him because he understands South Carolina – the state in which he was born. In addition, Edwards did well on the issue of the economy, the top concern to South Carolina's primary electorate. Forty-seven percent of voters said that the economy and jobs were the most important issues in their vote choice, and Edwards won more than half of these voters.

Edwards' winning coalition consisted of voters similar to the candidate himself. Sixty-four percent of his supporters described themselves as moderates or conservatives, and 59 percent were white. Half of Edwards' voters were Protestants, compared to 43 percent of voters overall.

Edwards' surprisingly strong showing in Oklahoma came from similar sources – voters there felt he cared about them, and they favored him on the issue of the economy and jobs.

Wesley Clark

Clark finished strongly in Oklahoma based on broad appeal to many different types of voters. His best showing was among voters concerned with national security and terrorism, and with the war in Iraq. Among the 6 percent of voters saying national security was the most important issue to their vote, Clark won with 38 percent of the vote. And among those citing the war in Iraq as their top issue (12 percent of Oklahoma primary voters), Clark split the vote with Kerry.

The Rest of the Field

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who did not actively compete for votes in these states in recent weeks, performed best in Arizona and Delaware. His support there came in large part from his early momentum in the race – in both states over half of his support came from voters who decided prior to the past month of the campaign.

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman failed to make much of a showing overall, including in Delaware, the state on which he had pinned his hopes. Even among conservative Democratic voters in Delaware, Lieberman received only one in five votes.

Despite expectations that the Rev. Al Sharpton could do well in South Carolina based on the support of black voters – who made up nearly half of the electorate there – he received only 17 percent of their votes.

The CBS News exit polls were conducted for the National Election Pool by Edison / Mitofsky among 2,093 voters in Arizona, 1,197 in Delaware, 1,400 in Missouri, 1,501 in Oklahoma, and 2,033 in South Carolina. The margin of sampling error for Arizona and South Carolina is + 3 percentage points, and + 4 percentage points for the remaining states.

Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.