Analysis: McCain Talks Straight To Victory

This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

It is a stunning turnaround for a candidate left for dead politically when his campaign fell apart last summer and one which vindicates McCain's return to his 2000 "Straight Talk" style.

When he began building his campaign in late 2006 and early 2007, McCain was the clear front-runner in the Republican field. He began raising big hunks of campaign cash, hired the best and brightest political operatives and began reaching out to the same conservative activists he called "agents of intolerance" in 2000.

But none of it worked. The over-spending led to campaign debt and a decimation of the top-heavy campaign organization. Unconvinced, conservatives cast about for a candidate they could call their own, many of them settling on Fred Thompson, others on Mike Huckabee and still others on Mitt Romney.

Plummeting to single-digits in the polls and reduced to a shoestring operation, McCain returned to his bus - and his true style. He staunchly supported the surge in Iraq at a time when most of the country wanted out. He opposed ethanol subsidies in Iowa, told concerned voters in Michigan that some of the jobs they've lost simply would not come back and opposed a popular idea in Florida to create a national insurance fund to lessen the blow of natural disasters like hurricanes.

McCain won some of those contests and lost some of them. But he's on the edge of winning the nomination just the same. If so, he will have it with a coalition of conservatives and moderates, independents and Republicans, war supporters and those dissatisfied with the Bush administration. He'll have won it because of a lack of a universally acceptable conservative alternative.

He approached an audience of conservative detractors this afternoon in a position of strength and with some more straight talk. "We have had a few disagreements, and none of us will pretend that we won't continue to have a few," he told activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference. "But even in disagreement, especially in disagreement, I will seek the counsel of my fellow conservatives. If I am convinced my judgment is in error, I will correct it. And if I stand by my position, even after benefit of your counsel, I hope you will not lose sight of the far more numerous occasions when we are in complete accord."

The Republican race will go on, at least through Tuesday's primaries in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC because Huckabee has vowed to stay in the race. But the same math which worked against Romney is going against Huckabee - and then some.

According to CBS News estimates, McCain leads the delegate race with 699, compared to 162 for Huckabee and 157 for Romney. With just over 1,300 delegates left up for grabs and 1,191 needed for the nomination, it's nearly impossible for Huckabee to win. Just two winner-take-all contests remain, meaning Huckabee would not only have to win most of the states remaining on the board, but win them with huge margins.

And Huckabee, while nearly certain to finish ahead of Romney in the delegate counts, has not demonstrated the same depth and breadth of support Romney did. In the contests to date, Romney has won over 4.1 million votes, compared to just over 2.4 million for Huckabee. McCain has collected over 4.8 million.

There have been no signs of the animosity with Huckabee that marked the McCain-Romney battle and the two campaigns have signaled they plan to keep it that way. "I am redoubled in my resolve to carry on my campaign in a civil, dignified manner," Huckabee said after learning of Romney's exit from the race. No candidate wants to be the last one to get into a nasty fight with the man who will be soon be thinking about picking his running mate, after all.