A New South Rises?

The once Solid South isn't solid anymore.

The political transformation of territory that once was a lock for the Democrats - and then became a stronghold for the Republicans over the past two decades - could make the states of the Old Confederacy presidential battlegrounds this year.

"I do think the South is more in play than it has been," said Hastings Wyman Jr., editor of the Southern Political Report newsletter.

"The issues that moved the South into the Republican column are all pretty much on the back burner or have disappeared," citing the end of the Cold War, the fading of racial issues as a top priority, and the Democrats' recent success with the economy.

In 1998, Democrats broke through the steady GOP progress by winning governors races in Alabama and South Carolina and retaining the governor's office in Georgia. Exit polls suggest that a big turnout of black voters combined with strong support from independents and some crossover Republicans were key. And Bill Clinton of Arkansas was able to carve away four of 11 Southern states - his home state, Tennessee, and Louisiana in both 1992 and 1996, plus Georgia in the first campaign and Florida in the second.

Vice President Al Gore, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is showing increased strength in the Northeast, Midwest, and California and would love to carve off a few Southern states in the 2000 general election. That would give him a better shot at winning the White House over Republican George W. Bush, the governor of Texas.

While the South remains strong for Republicans, many believe the political dynamic in the region is shifting - with voters more responsive to issues like Social Security, education, and health care than to party labels.

"People in the South no longer think in purely partisan, ideological terms," said Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Republican. "They are thinking in pragmatic, practical terms."

Even though Democrats reclaimed the Alabama governor's office in 1998, state GOP executive director Twinkle Andress sees that as "a totally separate election" from the race for the White House, pointing to polls which indicate Alabama as firmly conservative and Republican.

Five former Confederate states - Florid, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas - hold party primaries on Tuesday, along with Oklahoma. While the parties' nominees were settled a week ago, the primaries still shine the spotlight on a region that could play a crucial role in November.

"My guess is that the South will be the most Republican region in the country," said political scientist Charles Bullock of the University of Georgia.

"But that doesn't mean the Democrats can't pick off some states. If you allow the opposition to sweep the South," that would be more than 140 electoral votes, more than half the number needed to win the presidency.

Some political analysts conclude a Democrat in the South needs roughly 40 percent of the white vote and a heavy black turnout to make it to the White House.

Parts of the South - South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Virginia and Texas - are seen as very tough for the Democrats. Other states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida are viewed as more likely to be competitive. Until recently, the Democrats had little hope for Florida, where Bush's brother is governor, but the state is now considered possible.

Still, several recent national polls show Bush retains a big advantage over Gore in the South. And despite newfound Democratic enthusiasm, Huckabee thinks the South will provide the GOP a solid base, where Bush "will be stronger than garlic."