A Day Late And A Dollar Bill Short?

It's the fourth quarter, the score is lopsided, and the audience is streaming for the exits. But Bill Bradley is determined to play to the end of the game, although there's little chance he can win.

The end of the game, since we're talking politics, not basketball, is probably six days away, when the Super Tuesday "national primary" takes place. Bradley says, "March 7 is takeoff time, when we have to win some primaries." But that'll be harder after his decision to pour time and money into Washington state and its Democratic beauty contest backfired Tuesday.

What makes it sting is that Washington would have been a meaningless "P.S." had Bradley not chosen to make such a big deal of it. If he'd given the state a respectful nod, but campaigned longer and harder in the Super Tuesday states that matter, no one would be predicting doom because he lost a primary where no delegates were chosen. No one would be wondering if he'd drop out in the next 48 hours.

The guess here is that he won't quit, despite intense speculation to the contrary. Bradley has too much pride to give up before his self-imposed deadline. "We're going on to March 7," he said Wednesday morning, smiling to reporters. "We're working hard, and I feel really good." He confessed he was "disappointed" by Tuesday's results, but added, "That's history and we're moving on."

Yeah, but aren't some people coming to him and suggesting he stop now? "Zero," he said, still smiling. "Zero have come to me and said they think I ought to drop out."

Courting faithless Washington instead of ready-to-be-charmed New York was a tough call. Paul Beck, a professor of political science at Ohio State University, says New York is "a natural site" for Bradley, thanks to his years as a popular New York Knicks basketball player, the state's liberal tendencies and its familiarity with his career as a New Jersey senator. But Bradley still trails by over 20 points in New York polls.

And he's not doing any better in other Super Tuesday states, including his home state of Missouri. In California - the primary brass ring, and a state that might seem well-suited to him - Bradley garners a sad 11 percent of the voters, according to the most recent poll.

Bradley's approach to Gore has been problematic. His cerebral, quiet, rumpled personality is unusual for a politician, but it's the kind of thing some voters dig. When he started laying into Gore, though, that cool demeanor was badly ruffled. "It was out of character," argues Beck, "and people liked the character he showed early in the campaign. ... When he becomes more critical, it diminishes his luster."

Then Bradley's got a five-minute commercial on CBS Thursday night. This feels like another earnest misstep - Bush and McCain are hitting Leno and Letterman, and Bradley's got five minutes against ER.

But it may be a day late and a dollar Bill shot. "I think the opportunities he's had to materially effect the campaign may be lost," says Beck, "unless there was something really bold in that five-minute spot; but I don't know what that would be." It's hard to imagine an issue Bradley could seize, a position he could take or a charge he could level against Gore that "would change the momentum of the campaign." Right now, says Beck, the Democratic presidential nomination "is Gore's to lose".

So whither Bill Bradley, when the inevitable comes, probably sometime next week? He could run for president again in four years, if Gore's not running as an incumbent. Or he could resort to one of the oldest plays in the political playbook: "I could imagine him being a good vice-presidential running mate for Gore," Beck muses.