A Chat with Shane Satterfield of GameTrailers

It used to be an annual deluge. As summer gave way to fall, publishers would open the flood gates, bombarding video game fans with Triple-A titles in the hopes of capitalizing on the holiday rush. In the past couple of years, this trend has given way to a new idea: release the titles throughout the year. Will this latest course stand the test of time or will the industry revert to its old ways?

Shane Satterfield, Editor-in-Chief of GameTrailers.com, doesn't see publishers going back to the Hail Mary holiday heave.

"I don't think we'll ever see the release schedule go back to the all-or-nothing aesthetic of the past," Satterfield said. "There is always going to be a new 'Call of Duty' released each year, and I think consumers have proven that they're willing to buy quality games in large quantities no matter when they're released. I think you will continue to see the big blockbusters like 'Gears of War 3' do their best to be released at the holidays due to the sheer dollar amounts being spent. But established franchises like this aren't as vulnerable to risk as the smaller, newer ones."

In previous years, publishers seemed more willing to change the release date of their game if a forecasted runaway smash was on the horizon. Last fall, big-name titles such as "BioShock 2," "Splinter Cell: Conviction," "Red Dead Redemption," "Mafia 2" and "Mass Effect 2" were all pushed back to 2010. Some in the industry pointed to Activision's "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2" as the cause of these delays - and for good reason as "Modern Warfare 2" toppled many sales records.

But Satterfield doesn't think the root of these delays is that simple.
"No publisher has openly admitted that a single game affected its launch strategy," Satterfield said.

"Delays are more a culmination of a large number of high quality games released in that time period coupled with the ability to make a game better with more development time. Genre also plays a part. A lot of first-person shooters originally scheduled for release in [the fourth quarter of ] 2010 were moved into early 2011. It's no coincidence that both 'Halo: Reach' and 'Call of Duty: Black Ops' were slated for release during that timeframe. This genre, in particular, is something publishers watch because their online components are so engaging that players can take several months of playing competitively before they decide to move onto a new purchase."

With "Halo Reach" already released and "Call of Duty: Black Ops" anticipating a record launch, a number of titles slated for this year have already been delayed. "Little Big Planet 2," "Portal 2," "SOCOM 4," and "Crysis 2" are just a few games that were moved from fall 2010 to 2011.

But not all big-name games have vacated the holiday slot this year.

"Fallout: New Vegas," the sequel to the smash-hit Fallout 3, was recently released and is expected to sell well. "Assassin's Creed Brotherhood" is another established franchise that has maintained its fall window.

But "New Vegas" and "Brotherhood" seem to be the exception to the industry's new-found rule: if you can't be them, flee them.

It's an understandable mantra because millions of gamers are/or will be devoting countless hours to the multiplayer experiences of "Reach" and "Black Ops," making it seem like these first-person shooters already have won the battle for the coveted holiday dollar - scaring off the competition in the process.

And this competition - or lack thereof- might be the real driving force behind this sudden shift.

"Without question it's competition," Satterfield said.

"Over the past few years there have been a few games that have basically taken huge chunks of the market all on their own. Last holiday 'Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2' garnered $1 billion in sales by Jan. 14 after being released on Nov. 10. That is a huge piece of the pie for one game to take. A lot of other publishers blamed the game for soft sales. The publishers also realize that a lot of people get new video game consoles for Christmas, and the spring is a perfect time to release the next blockbuster since most players will have finished or tired of the games they received as gifts over the holidays."

Last year, specifically, proved Spring can be quite lucrative for publishers. "God of War III," and "Red Dead Redemption" were critical and commercial hits. "Mass Effect 2," released in winter of 2010, also sold quite well, further proof that financial success isn't limited to a three-month period.

And even the summer months - known to be the slowest part of the year in terms of releases - have had their share of hits. In 2009, "Batman Arkham Asylum" received rave reviews and impressive sales, and this past summer saw "Super Mario Galaxy 2" enjoy significant success.

This shift should be embraced by the industry. Diversifying release windows helps the publisher and the consumer. With the U.S. still in the midst of a recession and video game prices creeping closer and closer to that $100 mark each console generation, publishers would be wise to expand the release windows in order to better capitalize on gamers' dwindling expendable income.

"There have actually been a lot of games over the last three years that have sold extremely well outside of the holiday shopping season," Satterfield said. "The publishers are definitely starting to catch on, but I'm surprised it's taken them this long to figure it out."