7 Scary Facts About the Jobless Recovery

With unemployment stuck stubbornly above 9 percent and the duration of joblessness at record lengths, the phrase "jobless recovery" is meaningless (and probably infuriating) to anyone out of work. After all, what's the point of an economic recovery if it doesn't create jobs?

Technically, we're not even in a recovery anymore. The economy is actually in an expansion phase. The Great Recession that officially started in December 2007 ended exactly two years ago. Even more unbelievable to anyone stuck on the dole is that the economy returned to its pre-recession GDP peak back in December 2010.

But by economists' reckoning the recovery is over and the expansion has begun, notwithstanding the slew of lousy news -- from retail sales to manufacturing to inflation -- that show it hit one heck of a pot-hole in the last couple of months. No wonder so many investors, economists and analysts are worrying about a double-dip recession.
Sadly, jobless recoveries (cases where the economy indeed grows but not fast enough to add net new jobs) are starting to look more and more like the new normal, according to a new study from McKinsey Global Institue, the economics research arm of consultant McKinsey & Co. The news only gets more dismal from there.

The U.S. lost 7 million net jobs since December 2007, leading to perniciously high unemployment -- and we look to be stuck with the situation for some time. Currently at 9.1 percent, the unemployment rate would have to fall to 4.5 percent to reach so-called full employment. Unfortunately, McKinsey's most optimistic scenario says a return to such levels is a decade away.

And that's just part of a depressing jobs picture. Here are seven of the scariest takeaways from the McKinsey report:

• The U.S. economy will need to add 21 million net new jobs by 2020 to return to full employment
• The jobless recovery is expected to last 60 months, or until December 2015
• The percentage of men in the population not working today stands at 20 percent, up from 7 percent in 1970
• New business creation has declined 23 percent since 2007, resulting in as many as 1.8 million fewer jobs
• By 2020, the estimated shortage of college graduates in the workforce will stand at 1.5 million
• Nearly 60 percent of employers say they plan to hire more temporary and part-time workers
• The mobility of the U.S. workforce has always been one of its great strengths but the number of Americans who move annually has dropped to 1 percent today from 20 percent in 1985