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2020 Daily Trail Markers: Could Mike Garcia be the first Republican to flip a California House seat since 1998?

California's 25th district special election is the marquee one to watch Tuesday night, though given the close race between the two candidates – Republican Mike Garcia and Democrat Christy Smith – the expectation is that the winner will be declared later in the week. Mail voters had to have their ballot postmarked by Friday, although any ballots received up until Friday will still be counted. CBS News political unit broadcast associate Aaron Navarro reports that Ventura County will begin posting numbers of processed mail ballots at 8 p.m. PT on their website, though any in-person ballots cast Tuesday or mail ballots dropped off will be released Wednesday at 4 p.m. PT. Los Angeles County will be updating their results at 8 p.m. PT, starting with all the early mail ballots. There are nine vote centers and 22 vote-by-mail drop boxes, and turnout so far is at least 33%. 

Results as of Tuesday afternoon show Garcia with a lead of about 9,500 votes. Garcia is hoping to flip the seat from blue to red, after Democrat Katie Hill took the seat from incumbent Republican Steve Knight in 2018 before she resigned in 2019. If Garcia succeeds, he will be the first Republican to flip a California seat since 1998. One factor to watch is the 27,945 independent ballots that have come in but still have to be allocated. More than 16,000 votes came in on Tuesday so far, according to the tracker by the non-partisan Political Data Inc. With Garcia having a consistent lead in the early returns,  Democrats are hoping to surge in last-minute turnout. Paul Mitchell, vice president of the Political Data Inc., previously told CBS News that older, conservative voters tended to vote early while younger, minority voters vote close to Election Day. In recent days, Smith has gotten an 11th-hour push from national Democrats online, including Senator Bernie Sanders. Garcia, who has gotten early support from President Trump, was endorsed Monday by Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Other notable House elections on the docket today include Wisconsin's 7th district special election for Congressman Sean Duffy's old seat, and a Democratic House primary in Nebraska between Kara Eastman, Ann Ashford and Gladys Harrison. The winner will go on to face Republican Congressman incumbent Don Bacon, who beat Eastman by 2 percent in 2018. 

FROM THE CANDIDATES

JOE BIDEN

Joe Biden had no virtual public events on Tuesday but started the day on "Good Morning America." Biden called Mr. Trump's promise of COVID-19 tests for all Americans "absolutely fantasy land," continuing tough criticism about the pandemic response, CBS News campaign reporter Bo Erickson reports.  Much to his chagrin, the public health concerns are keeping Biden inside and he said he was "following the rules" of social distancing while Mr. Trump was not. "Everyone says Biden is hiding," the former vice president quipped and then pointed to his standing in the polls as evidence against the criticism that not traveling during this time is hurting his campaign. Lastly, he confirmed reporting that he was briefed in January 2017 about the investigation into former Trump national security Adviser Michael Flynn. Also on Tuesday, CBS News and broadcast associate Stephen Sanchez reported that a lineup of rock stars will fundraise for Biden later this month: James Taylor and guitarist Joe Walsh, Sheryl Crowe and guitarist Jason Isbell and David Crosby will round out a night of performances. 

PRESIDENT TRUMP

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters Tuesday the vice president has made a personal decision to stay away from the president. "The Vice President has made the choice to keep his distance for a few days, and I would just note that's his personal decision to make that," McEnany said in the White House briefing room. "As to how many days he does it, again, that's a decision for the Vice President." The decision comes after Vice President Pence's press secretary, Katie Miller, tested positive for the virus, Friday.

CBS News campaign reporter Nicole Sganga reports the Trump campaign says it is considering hosting "virtual rallies" with Mr. Trump ahead of the November election. Campaign senior adviser Lara Trump told reporters Tuesday that while the president hopes to return to the physical campaign trail in September, October and November, campaign officials are "prepared" to pursue other options. "If we do have to shift to something like a virtual rally, we're looking at that option. We've been really successful with all of our virtual events," Lara Trump said. The RNC and Trump campaign confirmed organizers are "going ahead" with an in-person GOP Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, in August. "We're very excited to see that happen and to hopefully be back to some semblance of normalcy then," Lara Trump remarked. Officials running the President's re-election continue to downplay recent polls showing the President running behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the key battleground states of Wisconsin, Florida and Michigan. "I think it's hard when you're in the midst of a crisis to take a poll on a president to really fully grasp how someone did," Lara Trump told reporters on Tuesday. "The reality is this president has protected American lives every step of the way. He's doing everything he can to support small businesses, to keep our economy going."

The Supreme Court listened to oral arguments via teleconference on Tuesday concerning the president's ongoing efforts to block injunctions from two House committees and Manhattan prosecutors for personal financial information, including his tax returns. Arguments heard over the telephone amid the COVID19 pandemic were available to the general public via livestream. The subpoenas addressed to Mr. Trump's accountants – not the president himself – call into question whether the commander-in-chief must follow the same rules governing all U.S. citizens. While the president's attorneys argue House committees have not demonstrated legitimate need for the financial disclosures, lawyers representing the U.S. House contend the President's financial records permit lawmakers to carry out legislative oversight. In accordance with the Supreme Court calendar, a ruling will likely arrive later this summer, preceding November's presidential election. Mr. Trump's accounting firm and banks have signaled their compliance with the high court's decision.

VEEPSTAKES

TAMMY DUCKWORTH

Senator Tammy Duckworth said it is "breathtaking" for her to be mentioned as a potential running mate for Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, according to CBS News campaign reporter Jack Turman. Asked if she is currently being vetted, Duckworth said on ABC's "The View" that her focus is getting Biden elected and she will leave the Biden campaign to their vetting process. Duckworth also said it is "long overdue" for women and people of color to have equal representation in all stages of government and in corporate America. "If you look at the Senate, there are more white men named John than there are senators of color," she said. Asked if Biden should withdraw from the presidential race because of the Tara Reade allegations, Duckworth said all victims need to be heard and added that there needs to be an investigation. She noted that Biden calling for any documents to be released from his Senate personnel records is an "important next step." Duckworth added, "I do think we should continue with the investigation, but I think he has addressed these allegations directly and I'm glad that he's done that."

ELIZABETH WARREN

The United States does not have COVID-19 "completely under control," the country's leading infectious disease expert told Senator Elizabeth Warren on Tuesday. "I think we're going in the right direction, but the right direction does not mean we have, by any means, total control of this outbreak," Dr. Anthony Fauci told Warren in a Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee hearing. Under questioning by Warren, Fauci said deaths from COVID-19 would increase if the country does not improve testing, contact tracing and social distancing. CBS News campaign reporter Zak Hudak says Warren concluded her questioning of Fauci by calling for Mr. Trump to accept the grim reality of the virus. "The time for magical thinking is over here," she said. "President Trump must acknowledge that the federal response has been insufficient and that more people are dying as a result." Warren also continued a push for more oversight of federal pandemic relief programs on Tuesday, introducing a discussion draft of the Coronavirus Oversight and Recovery Ethics (CORE) Act with four Democratic House and Senate colleagues. In light of Mr. Trump's firing of several inspectors general, the bill would trigger a public review from the Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and efficiency anytime an inspector general is removed. "We must hold the Trump administration accountable as they hand out trillions of dollars in response to the COVID-19 crisis," Warren said in a statement. The bill would also give the Congressional Oversight Commission subpoena power, require lobbyists to disclose all COVID-19 relief-related lobbying and allow individuals to sue companies that harmed them by failing to meet the terms set for them to receive bailout funds. The proposal came ahead of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi releasing a new $3 trillion coronavirus aid package.

CONVENTION(AL) WISDOM

RULES, RULES, RULES

The resolution to allow delegates to attend the convention remotely passed the Rules committee of the Democratic National Committee, reports CBS News political unit associate producer Eleanor Watson. The resolution will now go to the full DNC, roughly 447 members, for a vote via vote by mail. The resolution needs majority support from the full DNC to officially pass. DNC chair Tom Perez made remarks at the beginning of a call on Tuesday and said, "It is my expectation and hope that we will have an exciting and inspiring convention in August in Milwaukee. Now, does this mean that a precise format has been decided? No." He also said "this resolution gives us the tools necessary to adapt and plan in order to ensure that every delegate is able to accomplish their official business without putting their own health at risk. Whether that be participating in person or by other means to allow for social distancing." The committee also approved waivers that allow five states to hold primaries after the party's original June 9 deadline and keep their delegates. Those states are: Kentucky, New York, Delaware, New Jersey and Louisiana.

ISSUES THAT MATTER

EARLY VOTING

A coalition of U.S. companies has launched a new ad campaign to raise awareness about early voting amid the coronavirus pandemic, reports CBS News correspondent Nikole Killion. The group spent $100,000 on a full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal Tuesday addressed to CEOs and business leaders. The open letter encourages them to help employees and customers know how to vote "safely, securely and early." The ad states "in these unprecedented times, the ability to vote early, whether in person or by mail, has never been more important — because we believe no one should have to choose between casting a ballot and preserving their health." The letter was signed by 26 companies such as Ben & Jerry's, Gap Inc., Kenneth Cole, Levi Strauss & Co., Reddit, Sweetgreen, Tumblr, Twitter and ViacomCBS. CBS News is a division of ViacomCBS. "Businesses have a unique opportunity in this environment to amplify their efforts to help employees, consumers, and the public understand their early voting options," said Joey Wozniak of Vote Early Day. The nonpartisan organization, which is also comprised of nonprofits and election administrators, is advocating for a holiday called Vote Early Day on October 24, 2020 — 10 days before the general election.

VOTE-BY-MAIL

In a press call hosted by Let America Vote and End Citizens United Action Fund President Tiffany Muller, Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tammy Duckworth along with Jason Kander talked about protecting and expanding vote-by-mail for veterans. Duckworth and Kander both explained the importance of vote-by-mail and how it has affected them personally as they both cast their vote while serving abroad. Duckworth, who voted while serving in Iraq in 2004, said Mr. Trump is trying to make vote-by-mail a partisan issue, according to CBS News campaign reporter Jack Turman. "As we approach November, it's our responsibility as a nation to show that everyone who is eligible to vote can do so in a way that is secure, accessible, and importantly, safe," Duckworth said. "One of the best ways to do that is by expanding early voting opportunity and vote by mail programs across our country." Kander, who voted while serving in Afghanistan, said vote-by-mail has been logistically helpful for military service members. "This is literally a big reason why people join the military, to protect everybody's freedom and right to vote," Kander said. "Just like Senator Duckworth said, it was an incredible honor for me as well to be able to serve my country and to participate in my democracy at the same time. But I think part of the reason I signed up in the first place was to make sure people could do it regardless whether or not they were serving overseas or not." Kander added that states need federal resources and that there needs to be proper oversight to ensure that local and state officials are using the funds allocated to them properly. 

WOMEN'S RIGHTS

One hundred years after women were given the right to vote in the United States, women are setting new records in seeking federal office in 2020. According to the Center for American Women and Politics, 490 women have filed as candidates for U.S. House seats this year, a new high, and the filing deadline has not yet passed in 14 states. CBS News political unit associate producer Sarah Ewall-Wice reports the number this year already surpasses the previous record set during the 2018 midterms when 476 women filed to run for House seats. The surge comes in part thanks to a record number of Republican women running. So far,195 have filed for House seats in 2020, exceeding their 133 record set in 2010. However, Democrats continue to outpace Republicans with 295 running in House races. In 2018, Democrats were able to flip the House with the help of more women running.

POLLING THE ROOM

THREAT LEVELS

Nearly 9 out of every 10 Americans say the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to the U.S. economy, something that both Republicans and Democrats agree on, according to a new survey from Pew Research Center. While 88% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats say the coronavirus is a threat to the economy, CBS News campaign reporter Musadiq Bidar says Democrats are now nearly 40 percentage points more likely than Republicans to say COVID-19 is a major threat to the health of the population. According to the survey, which was conducted from April 29 to May 5, the share of Republicans who view the pandemic as a major threat to America's health has declined from 52% to 43% while increasing slightly among Democrats, from 78% to 82%. A high majority of Americans also expressed positive views of the way their local hospitals and medical centers are responding to the outbreak. Nearly 9 in 10 say their local healthcare systems are doing an excellent or good job, with 47% saying they are doing an excellent job. Most Americans also say public health officials as well as their local and state officials are doing either a good or excellent job. At the same time, a majority (61%) say it is primarily the federal government's responsibility to make sure there are enough tests to help with safely lifting stay-at-home restrictions.

BATTLEGROUND WISCONSIN

A new Marquette University Law School poll shows that Wisconsinites still support restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but that support is slipping and there's division along party lines. More than two-thirds, 69%, of registered voters said they thought it was appropriate to close schools and businesses and restrict public gatherings, which Governor Tony Evers did in his "safer at home" order. That's a drop from the most recent poll in March when 86% said they thought those actions were appropriate. More than a quarter, 26%, of registered voters said in the new poll that they thought the measures were an overreaction to the pandemic, compared to 10% in the previous poll. An overwhelming majority of Democrats, 90%, believe the actions are appropriate, compared to 49% of Republicans. In the March poll, 95% of Democrats said it was appropriate, along with 83% of Republicans. CBS News campaign reporter Adam Brewster notes Wisconsin voters have also been more pleased with how Evers has handled the COVID-19 pandemic than Mr. Trump, with 64% of respondents saying they approve of how Evers has handled the pandemic, compared to 76% in March. Less than half of Wisconsin voters (44%) approve of how Mr. Trump has handled the pandemic, compared to 51% who approved in March. Overall, the president has a 47% approval rating in the key battleground state, which has held fairly steady the past few months. The poll also shows Biden leads Mr. Trump in a November matchup, 46%-43%. That's similar to the numbers in March, when Biden led 48%-45%. The poll was conducted May 3-7, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

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