The 10-year federal budget: A shrinking share for kids

As the Republican tax plan comes before Congress -- and the public -- America's children will draw the short straw, according to a report from the Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based research group. Any analysis during this early phase of the tax code overhaul is tricky, and "projections [only] show where current law trends lead, absent changes in policy," said the report. But the institute's conclusions match up with many other analyses.

Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest on the debt will devour about 90 percent of the expected $1.5 trillion increase in the federal budget over the next 10 years. In comparison, children's programs are projected to increase by only $20 billion, which may sound like a lot, but it represents only "one cent of every dollar of the projected increase in federal outlays," according to the institute.

If you take a closer look, it's even less because most of the "increase" is going to Medicaid spending on children, which results in a net decrease for other child services.

"There are declines in early education and care [Head Start], education, social services, training and housing," said Julia Isaacs, an author of the report and an expert on child and family policy at the institute. Some health, income security and nutrition benefits are automatically adjusted for inflation and will decline less than the others, she added. "But relative to the growth in the economy, the children's categories all shrink."

By not raising taxes, broadening the revenue base to collect more or cutting spending in other parts of the budget, the GOP plan pits children's needs against immovable objects, according to the report. The surge in the senior citizen population, now approaching 50 million, will boost the cost of Social Security, Medicare and the adult portion of Medicaid by 62 percent over the 10 years ending in 2027. That creates an environment where it's better to be old than young.

Interest on the $18 trillion-and-growing national debt will consume another 28 percent of the budget, and a future interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve has been factored into the analysis, according to Isaacs. In addition, the defense budget will get a 2 percent upturn, and other outlays rise by 7 percent, but spending on children's needs increases only 1 percent. 

The Urban Institute's figures are based on data from the federal Office of Management and Budget and other sources.

But some children could fare better than others. "Federal spending is more targeted at younger children," said Isaacs, whereas "school-aged children are more served by state and local governments." Since federal spending also aims at lower-income children, that is, kids below 200 percent of the poverty line, many needy kids who don't quite meet those requirements could be left stranded.

In 2016, just $377 billion, or 10 percent, of the $3.9 trillion federal budget was spent on children, according to the report.

The Urban Institute isn't the only group sounding an alarm on children's programs. A Kaiser Family Foundation study shows that 32 states may run out of money for the Children's Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, by March of next year. CHIP provides a safety net for nearly 9 million children in low- and middle-income families, but federal funding for it has been delayed because of Congressional wrangling over health care.