When does the next election cycle begin?
ST. PAUL, Minn. – As some of last week's votes are still being counted, rumblings of 2024 have already started - with candidates already testing the water on bids for the White House.
So, when does the next election cycle begin? And what's the strategy on when to announce a presidential campaign?
We've weathered the attack ads, and did our civic duty. But just one week after the midterms, former President Donald Trump is expected to announce his third presidential campaign.
David Schultz, a political science professor at St. Paul's Hamline University, says Trump's announcement would be the "absolute earliest" he has ever heard.
"I would say at this point, effectively the 2024 presidential election process has already started," Schultz said.
Even before Americans cast their ballots last week, presidential hopefuls were visiting key states like Iowa months ago. They were endorsing midterm election candidates, while testing the campaign waters at the same time.
So, is there some strategy as to when you make that presidential campaign announcement?
"Sure there is," Schultz said. "If you declare first, you have a better shot at the donors, you have a better shot at being able to line up let's say potentially critical support from party leaders."
But being first doesn't guarantee first place. A Politico article pointed out that since the year 2000, no candidate who announces a presidential campaign first has ever won.
Schultz says announcing later has benefits as well.
"You can sort of, you know, come in there and say, 'I'm the person who's gonna be the savior of the party,'" he said.
Typically after the midterms, presidential hopefuls start exploratory committees. They can fundraise, conduct polls and visit with voters. Campaign announcements pick up in the late winter and early spring in the year before the election.
"Nerds like me, you know, I follow this all the time," Schultz said. "I'm interested very early on."
Officially announcing a presidential run unlocks certain requirements like filing donation reports. Until then, you'll hear candidates use coded language, suggesting they "might" run.
