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Coronavirus Impact: Updated Model Predicts COVID-19 Peak In Late-July With SAHO Extended Through May; 25K Deaths Possible

MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) -- An updated model from the University of Minnesota and state's health department is predicting that COVID-19 cases will peak in late-July with 25,000 deaths possible -- if the stay-at-home order is extended until the end of May.

The model, which was updated on April 28, estimates outcomes for multiple scenarios. Scenario 5 was recently added to those estimates.

In Scenario 5, the stay-at-home order is extended for all until the end of May. With that happening, the model predicts that the COVID-19 peak will happen on July 27, with the top intensive care units (ICU) demand being 4,000 and 25,000 possible deaths.

Another estimate, Scenario 4, predicts that if the stay-at-home order is extended by a month into mid-July, the peak would occur on July 13 with 3,700 as the top ICU demand and 22,000 possible deaths.

april 28 model covid-19 coronavirus
(credit: Minnesota Department Of Health/University of Minnesota)

In previous briefings, Gov. Tim Walz has asked Minnesotans not to focus on specific numbers, but rather focus on when the peaks might occur.

"Modeling was never meant to provide a number," Governor Walz said on Wednesday. "It was meant to show trend and direction, that if you social distance you buy more time."

A third model is expected to be released later this week, MDH officials said Monday afternoon.

Related: What Does Minnesota's COVID-19 Modeling Say? (April 10)

As of now, Gov. Tim Walz's stay-at-home order expires on May 18.

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