New poll shows Bass has slim lead over Raman, Pratt in LA mayoral election

A new poll shows that Mayor Karen Bass has a slim lead over her opponents - Councilmember Nithya Raman and political newcomer Spencer Pratt - in the upcoming June primary election.

The trio appeared deadlocked in a tight battle for voters, with Bass holding a slim 26% lead, Raman close behind at 25%, and Pratt trailing at 22%, according to the UC Berkeley-LA Times poll from May 28. 

Campaign strategist Luis Alvarado said this is the closest race he's seen in decades.

"Everybody is tied within the margin of error," Alvarado said. "What's interesting is that a lot of people haven't turned in their ballot, or are just really glued to the TV and trying to figure out how they're going to vote. There are too many undecideds, and even those who said they're going to vote and they know who they're going to vote for — they still haven't voted."

In the two months leading up to the primary, UCLA's Luskin School of Public Affairs poll found that 40% of voters remained undecided, with director Zev Yaroslavsky calling the election "a wide-open race."

However, the more recent UC Berkeley-LA Times poll found that a majority of undecided voters have chosen sides, with the undecided share dropping to 10%.

Raman's campaign celebrated her surge to second place on social media, saying the new poll "shows who has the momentum."

Pratt also responded to the latest numbers by taking a jab at UC Berkley.

"As a Trojan i would never go off a UC Berkeley poll. FIGHT ON!" he wrote on a post to X.

Analyst Paul Mitchell, who is the vice president of bipartisan voter data firm Political Data Inc, said Pratt could still have "a lot of energy around his campaign."

"They claim they are going to be turning out some non-traditional voters," Mitchell said. "I think their ability to turn out non-traditional voters is greater than the ability of the Raman or Bass campaigns to, kind of, turn out voters of the disaffected class. But, we haven't seen that data yet."

Mitchell added that Democrats have been underperforming Republicans in ballot returns, but it appears the trend may be shifting.

"In the last 24 hours, we are starting to see a pickup from Democrats," he said. "We are actually believing there will be a surge at the end because a lot of votes that are still outstanding and still in the hands of voters or on their kitchen counters, a lot of those voters are the most extremely likely to vote."

California Gov. Gavin Newsom endorsed Bass the same day the UC Berkeley-LA Times poll was released.