What early voting numbers say about Michigan's 2026 midterm election

With Election Day now less than two weeks away, more than 2 million absentee ballots have been requested across Michigan.

As of Wednesday morning, more than 860,000 Michiganders have returned their ballots.

With the addition of early in-person votes, nearly 11.6% of the state's active registered voters have already voted, but those numbers only tell part of the story.

"We're running ahead of where we were in 2022, which is the most comparable cycle. I think what we're seeing, we're about 17% ahead in terms of where that vote was in 2022," said Peter Trumbore, Political Science Professor, Oakland University.

Voting before Election Day has become more common, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, so a big early number doesn't necessarily indicate higher overall turnout.

The next test starts Saturday when in-person early voting opens statewide, and Trumbore says the beginning and end of that window could be the busiest.

"For a lot of reasons, you're probably going to see heavier traffic at the very beginning, and then, as the window starts to close, you'll have people who want to try to get in before it's too late," said Trumbore.

In Southeast Michigan alone, more than 1.1 million absentee ballots have been requested, with parts of Metro Detroit accounting for more than 300,000 of those requests.

Once in-person voting begins, Trumbore says, where those voters show up will be the next number to watch, especially in Wayne and Oakland counties.

"If we see strong in-person early voting in Wayne County and in the city of Detroit in particular, I think that that's going to bode well for Democrats," said Trumbore.

In-person early voting has already started in several counties within the Upper Peninsula, but statewide early voting begins on Oct. 24 and runs through Nov. 1.