Dan Leach's 2015 NFL Locks: Week 'Fantastic 4'
By Dan Leach
@dtmleach
Well, we're at the first quarter mark of the NFL season and my picks are just heating up, helping you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and become a more whole football fan and human being overall. I'm taking a look at five games this week with the best value and rating them on a sliding lock of the week 1-10 Bagels and Lock scale. And……Away….We…..Go!
DTM Song Of The Week: "Rockin In The Free World" By Pearl Jam at the Global Citizen Festival at New York's Central Park September 26, 2015
While it was tough not to be at the Global Citizen festival with 70,000 of my closest friends like I had planned to be before two of my great friends decided to have weddings on the same night, seeing the boys absolutely scorch the stage made me feel a little better. Pearl Jam once again showed why they are one of the world's greatest bands -- playing for such an important cause in front of an amazing crowd last Saturday night in the city that never sleeps.
Click here for info on how to get involved with Global Citizen.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs 8:30 p.m Sunday, TV Fox (Panthers -3)
Cam Newton and the Panthers have been sizzling to start the 2015 year and come in as one of the seven undefeated team so far in 2015. The Bucs got a nice win in week two at New Orleans, but really are a couple of years away from being a true threat with the young Jameis Winston or "Crab Legs" as a I call at the helm. These two teams seem to always play them close, but on this Sunday look for the Panthers to dominate from start to finish. To make you feel even better about Carolina, T.B is only 7-23 against the spread in their last 30 as a home underdog at the Pirate Ship.
5.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Panthers (-3 buy down to 2.5)
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears 1 p.m. EST Sunday, CBS (Raiders -3)
Who would have thought that the Raiders would have a winning record after three weeks for the first time since -- it would seem -- before the I-Pod was invented? Oakland is definitely a team on the rise and behind QB Derek "get out of y Carr and get into my dreams" and his many weapons along with a solid D, Oakland is going to be a threat all season long. The Bears might have trouble beating some college teams this year. Take the Raiders in a rare Midwest/East Coast road game rout. This is only the third time Oakland has been a road favorite in the Eastern time zone since 2005! There is a reason for that.....Da Bears are Da-Sgusting.
6.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Raiders (-3 buy down to 2.5)
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks 8:30 p.m. EST Monday TV ESPN (Seahawks - 10)
Well here we go again. A Lions team that has unbelievably underachieved through the first three weeks of the season at last years NFC champs in about as big as a must win in recent memory for the Honolulu blue and silver. There are two things going for the Leo's: First there is a good chance they get top defensive Deandre Levy back from a hop injury, and Hawks all-world RB Marshawn Lynch is only 50/50 to play.
Then there is this from Facebook poster Aaron Weiss....
20 years ago, the year was 1995. The Detroit Lions, coming off a playoff appearance the previous year, were a disappointing 0-3, having dropped the first game on the road vs an AFC team (PIT), lost week 2 @ Minnesota, and were defeated in the home opener by a 39 year old QB (Dave Kreig). They were then faced with a MNF game vs the defending NFC champion (SF).
The Lions went on to beat SF on MNF, finish 10-6 and became one of 3 teams in history to start 0-3 and still make the playoffs.
Heading into the MNF game, all of those things are also true of the 2015 Lions (the week 1 AFC opponent being SD, the 39 year old QB being Payton Manning and the defending NFC champ being Seattle).
Coincidence? Probably.#PLAYOFFS? #HonaluluBlueKoolAid #IamASucker Nuff Said!
SEATTLE 28 LIONS 24- (See I am getting smarter with my old age- Lions cover , but don't win. You know that means they will pull off the shocker now:)
7.1 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – LIONS (+10)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins 1 p.m. EST, Sunday TV Fox (Eagles -3)
It's time for that true Eagles breakout game right? Because if it doesn't happen soon, Chip Kelly might take his wild west offense to the CFL. The Skins are a bad team and have a QB in Kirk "Kissing" Cousins that might not make it past week four with another stinker performance. Everything will work for the birds this day, even DeMarco Murray looking like an NFL RB for at least five minutes. Lets just hope Hurricane Joaquin doesn't spoil the party. Stay safe East Coast peeps.
7.4 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Eagles (-3 buy down to 2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals 1 PM EST, Sunday TV CBS (Bengals -4)
After starting out in high fashion in week one with a balanced win on the road in Houston, the Chiefs have gagged away a game against Denver, then looked completely outmatched most of the way against the undefeated Packers. This is a good K.C. team that will start to reach its potential over the next few weeks and I think it starts here over the 3-0 Bengals. You don't see four point spreads that often in the NFL, but a high percentage of the time the dog covers them. It's like a nice bowl of porridge, three is the magic number in the football as I have always told you. Two is too low, and four is just right when it comes to taking a dog in a virtual must win game. Some more food for though: The Chiefs are 14-5 in their last 19 games on the road.
8 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Chiefs (+4)
ODDS TIDBIT
I go to college football for this one cause its just that unbelievable. The Over/Under on the Texas Tech V Baylor game on Saturday is an absurd 88 points. The largest total for a football game......EVER!!
DTM'S 2015 Record ATS: 10-5
DTM'S 2014 Record ATS: 58-40-1
DTM's ATS Record in last 15 Super Bowls: 13-2
