President Trump sent global markets spinning when he announced steep and wide-ranging reciprocal tariffs with every major U.S. trade partner, and especially China, which were to take effect Wednesday. 

As markets shuddered and Americans wondered what these tariffs would mean for them, Mr. Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of his new tariffs, and a lowering of the "reciprocal tariff" rate to 10%, effective immediately, he said on Truth Social. At the same time, the president said he's increasing the tariff rate on goods imported from China to 125%. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the universal tariff rate for the next 90 days will be 10% for virtually all countries, except China. That 10% tariff rate also applies to imports from Canada and Mexico, according to Bessent. What happens after the 90-day pause period concludes is unclear, as countries continue to negotiate with the Trump administration.  

Illinois is one of the largest exporting states in the U.S. doing business with China, and tariffs could have deep and wide-ranging effects on Illinois industry, especially on the hundreds of thousands of farmers and agricultural workers in the state. 

"I certainly think soy farmers are going to have a uniquely difficult time," said Steven Durlauf, economics professor at the University of Chicago.

Durlauf said the White House zeroing in on China puts into sharper focus the deep business relationship between mainland China and the Land of Lincoln. 

"Right now we are at a position of brinkmanship; tariffs are proposed, tariffs are escalated," he said. "What nobody really knows is what the upshot is going to be." 

The Illinois Department of Commerce reports Illinois did $4.67 billion in export trade with China in 2024, making it the state's fourth-largest trade partner. Illinois does the most exporting with Canada ($19.83 billion in 2024) and Mexico ($13 billion in 2024), followed by Australia ($4.71 billion in 2024). 

Illinois trade with China increased 5.8% in 2024 from 2023, and the state ranks eighth among U.S. states for exports to China. But Illinois imports exponentially more from China than it exports; more than $42 billion in goods in 2024 alone, ranking second among all U.S. states for imports from China. This figure is also up 160% from five years ago.

Agricultural products – mainly soybeans, corn and pork – make up the majority of Illinois' exports to China, comprising $1.48 billion, followed by chemicals, computer and electronic products, non-electrical machinery and food and kindred products. 

Gov. JB Pritzker has been working to reassure Illinois farmers and agricultural workers amid the chaotic and escalating trade war Mr. Trump has committed to. At Agricultural Legislative Day Wednesday, Pritzker told the agricultural community, "We have been working with our counterparts in Mexico as well as our partners in Canada and around the world to keep our ties from this state strong, and to ensure our farmers aren't once again left as collateral damage in a self-inflicted trade war." 

The Commerce Department says Chinese firms employ 4,925 Illinoisans at 191 distinct locations for 85 subsidiaries. 

The state imported $25.46 billion in computer and electronic products from China in 2024, followed by miscellaneous manufactured commodities, electrical equipment, appliances and components, chemicals, and non-electrical machinery. 

Illinois companies also have significant employment in China. McDonald's Corporation employs more than 55,000 people in China as of 2024, while thousands are also employed by Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. (8,391), Abbott Laboratories (6,918), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (5,508), and Oreo cookie maker Mondelez International, Inc. (4,813).

"What economists call ambiguity, it's not just that we don't know what's going to happen in the future; we don't know the probability of things," Durlauf said. "It's an unusually difficult environment in which to make decisions." 

A popular example of what things would cost if production left China is to do with iPhones. A $1,300 iPhone now could double or triple in price if China was taken out of the mix and American workers made the pieces, parts and software that are so integral to our daily lives.