Experts weigh in on ad from Chicago mayoral candidate claiming homicides are down
A political ad is raising eyebrows after claiming that shootings are up, but homicides are down in Chicago.
An ad by mayoral candidate Susana Mendoza claims that homicides are down in Chicago due to the work of trauma surgeons.
While the opening of new trauma centers improves the survival of gunshot victims, the survival rates for victims across the city have not been improving. In fact, they've actually gotten worse, with some calling the ad misleading.
"One reason that homicides are down is because Chicago has the best trauma surgeons in the country," Mendoza said in the ad.
Could trauma surgeons really be making that big of a dent?
"I don't think necessarily anything has changed in terms of survival," said Dr. Michael Poulson, trauma surgeon and gun violence researcher
Poulson authored a study in February that showed a nearly 4% decrease in gun-related deaths in the area around UChicago Medicine following the opening of a level 1 trauma center there in 2018.
"There was a decrease in mortality with the opening of our trauma center only on the South Side. But if you look at the city as a whole, homicide … the percentage of homicides of all shootings has actually been going up," he said.
He says more people are dying from gunshot wounds in the city regardless of what they've been doing.
"I think it's fair to say that everybody plays a role," said David Olson, professor and co-director of the Loyola Center for Criminal Justice
Olson pointed out data showing that the fatality rate for shooting victims has not improved in recent years, but has gotten slightly worse.
His thoughts on the ad's claim?
"There's a grain of truth in it. I wouldn't place all the focus on trauma surgeons and their impact. Again, it's much more complicated," he said.
And Poulson's thoughts, based on his findings?
"I think a lot of the claims were a bit misleading," he said.
The Mendoza campaign originally said their research for the video in question included Dr. Poulson's study and CPD crime data. They followed up by saying they actually relied on a "body of research" including multiple studies "showing that the amount and the quality of trauma care in Chicago has increased in recent years and coincided with a reduction of homicides."
Coincided ... an important distinction, the researchers noted.
Regardless, Dr. Poulson says the overall message of the video is spot on.
"I think she does make a good point that we do still need to talk about gun violence," he said. "It's true we need to keep talking about it, and we need to find solutions."
Poulson said that discussion needs to be focused particularly on the south and west sides of the city.
Mendoza's campaign also noted that, anecdotally, she recently went on a listening tour and met Chicagoans saved by trauma surgeons and that their stories matter in the conversation.
