CHICAGO (CBS) -- When the Mets bring the heat, the Cubs can't take it.

Obviously, it's harder to hit a fastball traveling at 95-plus miles per hour, compared with one thrown just a few miles per hour slower.

But exactly how much of a difference does 2 to 3 mph make?

The folks at FiveThirtyEight found out, and it's quite a lot.

For the Cubs, a batter facing a 92-mph pitch misses it 20 percent of the time on average. The whiffs ramp up to 25 percent with a 95-mph ball.

A Noah Syndergaard 97-mph bullet? A Cubs' batter will miss it 30 percent of the time.

The Cubs have faced three Mets pitchers who consistently hit speeds of 96-plus.

There will be little relief Wednesday night.

Steven Matz, the Mets' Game 4 starter, relies mostly on a 95-mph four-seam fastball, according to Brooks Baseball.