Hurley's Picks: The Grinch before NFL Christmas
BOSTON -- If you celebrate the Christmas holiday, and if you also celebrate NFL football, then this time of year can create some complications for you -- especially when the big day falls on a weekend.
This year, Christmas Eve is a Saturday, and Christmas Day is a Sunday. Which means, obviously, the NFL is going to throw a lot of football at you. After all, what are holidays for if not for gathering with loved ones, eating and drinking, and watching some sweet, sweet sports. Sure, your family looks at you like you have a real problem, as you've chosen to spend your festive holiday with strangers who make millions to play games instead of spending that time with the people most important to you. But ... when you took the underdog plus-9 and they're driving for a garbage time touchdown to give you a miraculous cover, what are you supposed to do? Watch your kids open presents? I think not.
Well, fortunately this year, you won't have too much of a problem. That's thanks to a holiday NFL schedule that had to have been devised by The Grinch himself.
Though you've got a week to mentally prepare for it, here's what the Christmas week schedule looks like.
Fortunately, the Thursday night game sneakily rocks. Jaguars at Jets. It may not seem like a winner, but the Jets are better than they get credit for being, and the Jaguars have been very watchable lately. They're 3-2 in their last five games, with Trevor Lawrence throwing 10 touchdowns and no picks during that stretch. It's a good thing that game is a fun one, because life gets rough in the prime-time slots on the weekend.
On Christmas Eve, at 8:15 p.m. ET, it's ... the Raiders at Steelers. Both teams are currently 5-8. The Steelers can't score. The Raiders can't defend. Neither team is very good at winning. Sounds like a must-miss.
But that's merely the appetizer for the main course of Christmas Day. The NFL carefully selected these games when making the schedule last spring, putting together a showcase of the league's best to compete with and dominate the ratings on a day that has typically belonged to the NBA.
And here's what they've got.
At 1 p.m. ET, it the Packers at Dolphins. That game is ... fine. But the Packers -- who entered the season as one of the top three teams in terms of Super Bowl favorites -- are not a compelling product this year. They're 5-8. It's not the type of game that's going to draw you to a TV when you could otherwise be conversing with your cousin at the nearest bowl of eggnog.
At 4:30 p.m. ET, it gets much worse. That sweet, sweet mid-afternoon window will deliver this to the United States of America: Broncos at Rams. Great googily moogily. Even the families of the Broncos and Rams players will skip that one.
Broncos at Rams! Unbelievable. (The NBA will have the ending of Lakers-Mavericks, then the start of Bucks-Celtics during this window, if you're comparing notes.)
And then, in the prime-time window on Christmas Day, the NFL is giving everyone ... Buccaneers at Cardinals.
The Bucs do have Tom Brady, but they are just a bad football team. They gave America a thrill with a late comeback against a bad Saints team, but they got absolutely waxed in San Francisco last week in a game so bad that the FOX national feed switched to Panthers-Seahawks because it was a more compelling game. The Cardinals were already bad, and then they just lost starting QB Kyler Murray on Monday night.
The Bucs are currently 6-7. The Cardinals are 4-9. This. Game. Smells.
It's almost unfathomable that the NFL could handpick a triple-header for Christmas Day and end up with ... that.
It just goes to show that nothing in the NFL last for very long, and nothing in the NFL is easy to predict.
Now if you don't mind, please spend a few minutes reading my expert NFL predictions. Thank you!
(Home team in CAPS; Thursday lines)
San Francisco (-3.5) over SEATTLE
A rookie QB, making his second career start, on a short week. Normally wouldn't bother with that. But the Seahawks have been playing over their skis all year. I think they're running out of steam.
I do look forward to a grumpy Al Michaels saying whatever he wants throughout this one. The man is must-see TV, even if he's not technically on TV.
MINNESOTA (-4) over Indianapolis (Saturday)
The Vikings are better than the Colts. Sometimes picks are easy. I love it when a pick is easy. (This pick is, obviously, destined to fail now.)
As a reminder, this game is being played on a Saturday, and I'm not talking Jeff here, folks.
Baltimore (+2.5) over CLEVELAND (Saturday)
Is it weird that I'm not overly worried about the Ravens potentially not having a quarterback? I do feel as though I'm being a bit cavalier about that matter.
Nevertheless.
Deshaun Watson, by the way, is completing less than 60 percent of his passes. He has 407 passing yards in two games, with one touchdown and two picks. Not great for him. Shame.
BUFFALO (-7.5) over Miami (Saturday)
On the one hand, the Bills are in complete "just do enough to win" mode. So 7.5 is dicey.
On the other hand, the Dolphins had sideline heaters for their game last week. In Los Angeles. In a partially outdoor stadium. In Southern California.
If they were afraid of the cold in Los Angeles, California, then I fear what might happen to them in the warm confines of Orchard Park, New York.
The National Weather Service forecast for Saturday night in Buffalo? "Snow showers. Low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 90%."
Bills by a thousand.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Atlanta
CAROLINA (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
Some football games are super interesting. These are not two of those games.
Detroit (+1) over NEW YORK JETS
I've been riding with the Jets lately. It's honestly not for the faint of heart. They pulled off the cover last week, but it was not easy. It was a roller coaster. I'm still feeling queasy.
But the Jets just need to be like ... maybe 5 percent better than they have been. Then they'll be good. Can they get there? Maybe. I just know I don't have the stomach to go along for the ride anymore. This is my stop.
(The fact that Jets fans have been doing this for years, decades, entire lives ... it's unfathomable. Larry David based a whole Curb episode on it. I get it more now than I ever have before -- and I've only been pulling for them to cover. Forget about actually winning. Sheesh!)
Kansas City (-14) over HOUSTON
The Texans put up one hell of a fight in Dallas. Cool. Let's not get distracted, though. They had lost against the spread in their previous four games and in six of their last seven games. I am not scared of the two-touchdown spread.
Philadelphia (-9) over CHICAGO
I've been waiting for like six weeks for the Eagles to come back to earth and have an ugly game or two. But they just keep getting better. Fine! I'm out! Ya got me.
JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Dallas
How do you feel about Mike McCarthy's team coming down the stretch? Do you feel good? Do you love it?
DENVER (-3) over Arizona
Likely a couple of backup QBs for a couple of bum teams. Rough one.
I know everyone likes to clown on Russell Wilson, and believe me, I've done my share of clowning. He's a very clownable figure. But he was starting to look like his old self last week. It was fun. And when he broke through an arm tackle and took off running for a big game, it was nice to see. But then his head slammed into the turf, and immediately everybody knew it was bad.
I thought that was a bummer. (I also see that he's trying to play this week. Hopefully the Broncos stop him. Not that there's any specific scenario that makes the risk of long-term brain damage worth it, but this particular football game is certainly not it. Take your time, Mr. Wilson. Your 3-10 team will be there for you when you're ready.)
New England (-1) over LAS VEGAS
I could list a million reasons why the Raiders could cause some serious problems for the Patriots and it just wouldn't matter. After last week, I know beyond a doubt that the Raiders simply have no clue how to win. Not one single idea. They're clueless.
They blew a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter and allowed a game-winning touchdown drive to be led in just 95 seconds by a quarterback who lived on the opposite coast just two days prior to kickoff. Do you know how hard that is?
It was the FOURTH time the Raiders have blown a double-digit halftime lead this season. They're 0-4 when leading by double digits at halftime. I can't find the exact number right now, but I saw some tweet that said the rest of the NFL is something like 59-3 in the same scenarios. That's crazy. It's hard to do. It's not good.
So go ahead. Convince yourself that Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow will return and combine forces with Davante Adams, and that Josh McDaniels and Derek Carr would figure it all out. Have fun. I've seen enough to ever believe in the Raiders on any given week.
Tennessee (+3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Kind of the opposite effect here. I should be all the way out on the Titans. They are spiraling. They're 0-3 over the last three weeks, and they haven't even been competitive in the last two.
But then I look at the face of Mike Vrabel and I just envision his guys getting so incredibly fired up to deliver that fiery 60-minute dominant performance that feels inevitable. It's not entirely logical. Certainly a weakness of mine.
Cincinnati (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not good.
They can lose this game and fall to 6-8, but they'll still be in first place. What a world.
New York Giants (+4.5) over WASHINGTON
I mentioned earlier how difficult it's been riding the Jets train lately. But I've been riding the Giants even longer, and they finally let me down last week. Look, that was inevitable. The Giants aren't actually good enough to cover every week.
But they are good enough to cover most weeks.
Let's hope for another tie. Ties freaking rule, baby.
GREEN BAY (-7) over Los Angeles Rams
I don't know, friends. I just don't know.
Green Bay? Not sure. Not very good. L.A. Rams? Not sure. Not very good. Seven points? Not sure.
The Rams won last week. That's cool. They lost the previous six weeks. The Packers won their last game. They lost seven of their eight previous games.
Just run away from this one. I'm making a pick here because I have to. Because I have a duty. But you? You're free. Go run off and do something exciting with your life. Or don't. Just don't touch this here football game. It's a bad idea.
Last week: 6-7
Season: 100-102-6
We've got to get that puppy well up over .500 before the season is over. Go you Packers!
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
