Patriots' draft pick took a big hit with Week 16 win over Broncos

BOSTON -- The Patriots earned an emotional win over the Broncos on Sunday night that certainly made for a happy Christmas among players in the locker room. But those keeping an eye on New England's draft status won't be as thrilled.

The Patriots entered Sunday night with the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft., but after their 26-23 win in Denver, New England has been knocked a couple of spots on the draft board. At 4-11, the Pats would currently select fourth overall.

And their draft status may not improve much over the final two weeks of the regular season.

The Arizona Cardinals (3-12) and the Washington Commanders (4-11) both lost on Sunday, vaulting them above the Patriots in the draft order. The Commanders own the tiebreaker over the Patriots because of their worse strength of schedule, .518 to .522. 

While it was nice to see the underdog Patriots pull off a win on Sunday, it likely cost them a spot in the top two and a chance to draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. It may have even cost them the No. 3 pick, given how the Cardinals and Commanders close the season.

Arizona closes the season at Philadelphia in Week 17 and against the Seahawks in Week 18. Washington has a pair of home games against playoff teams in the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys. Chances are both of those teams will be going 0-2 over the next two weeks.

The Pats have a tough one against the Bills in Buffalo next weekend before closing out the season against the New York Jets. But if both the Cardinals and the Commanders lose out, the Patriots will finish no better than the No. 3 pick. They will likely land the No. 4 pick unless they're able to overtake Washington in the strength of schedule department. New England also has the 5-11 Giants right behind them in the standings, with New York closing the season with home games against the L.A. Rams and the Eagles.

While it's nice to see that Patriots players are still playing to win games, winning Sunday may have hurt one of the franchise's best building blocks for the future. The Pats are now going to need some help to get back into the top three -- and potentially stay at No. 4 --  in the 2024 NFL Draft.