BOSTON (CBS) – History tells us that New Hampshire often echoes the results out of Iowa - not always, but often.
And even though most of Tuesday night's exclusive WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University tracking poll was taken before the Iowa results began to emerge, there are signs history is repeating itself.
The poll found Bernie Sanders holding his lead with 24 percent, about the same as Monday night. But there's a new number two - Pete Buttigieg is up four points over Monday night with 15 percent, just within the survey's 4.4% margin of error.
Joe Biden is in a virtual tie with Buttigieg, just a fraction behind, and Elizabeth Warren is down three points at 10 percent.
Buttigieg is up sharply among men and voters between ages 35 and 55, a demographic where he had been lagging. Meanwhile, Biden lost nine percent of his support among voters aged 55-65.
"The Iowa caucus matters even if it's a day later," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Biden's drop and Buttigieg's spike might be temporary movements, we'll see if the trends hold. But people in that [55 to 65] age category have been around, they've seen political trends before, and they may be seeing the writing on the wall for Biden."
Some of Buttigieg's bounce may also be coming at Warren's expense - she lost five percent of her backing from male voters.
There was no real movement Tuesday night among the second tier of candidates, with former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick dropping to zero percent. And the race remains very fluid, with four in ten voters saying they might change their minds before primary day next Tuesday.
The WBZ-TV/Boston Globe/Suffolk University tracking poll is a two-day rolling sample of 500 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters.
Join us Wednesday night at 11 for night three of the exclusive WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University tracking poll.
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