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Exclusive NH Tracking Poll: Pete Buttigieg Stays Hot, Ties Bernie Sanders For Lead

BOSTON (CBS) – New Hampshire – Hoosier daddy now? In the latest exclusive WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll, Pete Buttigieg continues his remarkable post-Iowa surge.

Bernie Sanders is holding steady at 24 percent, but Buttigieg is up four points over last night with 23 percent, a virtual tie in a survey with a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Elizabeth Warren takes over third place with 13 percent, and Joe Biden slips to fourth with 11 percent.

Mayor Pete's gains don't seem to be coming at the expense of Sanders, whose numbers haven't changed much all week. Instead, Buttigieg seems to be attracting registered Democrats. And his biggest gains appear to be raided from key backers of Warren and Biden.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Among women, Warren is down four points from Wednesday night and Buttigieg is up six.

And among voters over 65, a core source of Biden backers, Buttigieg has doubled his support overnight, a 16 point jump.

READ MORE: NH Tracking Poll | Crosstabs

The Buttigieg surge shows up dramatically in the numbers from Hillsborough County, the state's largest, home to Manchester and Nashua, the type of urban/suburban mix where Democrats will have to run up the score in November.

On Thursday night, Buttigieg was pulling 27 percent there, a stunning 19 point increase since Monday.

Sanders is at 18, down six from his peak Hillsborough County showing on Tuesday.

Biden started the week tied with Warren at 19 percent there. Thursday night they were drawing 12 and 14 percent respectively.

"His movement is real," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "For savvy older voters, it looks to me that when the electability argument went away for Biden, where else were they going to go? There's nothing about him they dislike. His positions are close to Biden's, and he's the next most comfortable alternative to Biden."

With this kind of momentum, says Paleologos, Buttigieg could run away with this race unless something happens to slow his roll. And if you're his competitors, Friday night's debate might be the last chance to do that.

The WBZ-TV/Boston Globe/Suffolk University tracking poll is a two-day rolling sample of 500 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters which will continue through Sunday night.

Join WBZ Friday night at 11 for yet another chapter in this red-hot race.

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