Keller @ Large: Could politics be the next frontier for legalized gambling in Massachusetts?
BOSTON - Betting on most sports events is now legal in Massachusetts. But what about wagering on one of our state's most popular spectator sports -- politics? Could that be the next frontier for legalized gambling?
Technically it's still not legal in the US. But you can already wager on politics in Canada and through overseas markets, so it's likely just a matter of time before we can do it here. And consider the abundance of material we have to work with.
General elections in Massachusetts politics these days aren't very competitive. Picking the Republican nominee to win is like betting on a 16-seed to beat a top seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. But party primaries sometimes offer a competitive field and wagering on those could draw significantly more attention to them than they're already getting.
You've got the New Hampshire primary to work with every four years. Despite a recent push by President Biden to strip the Granite State of its first-in-the-nation position, New Hampshire state law says they have to go first, even if that means moving it up to next summer. I would set the odds at two-to-one that the media will still show up in droves; after all, they do so for the Iowa State Fair straw poll. But make that three-to-one against a media turnout if NH Gov. Chris Sununu runs and renders the primary meaningless because of his favorite-son status.
Imagine wagering on whether or not the Massachusetts Legislature can pass a budget by the constitutionally mandated June 30th deadline. That hasn't happened for the last eight years in a row, so I'd set the early line at ten-to-one against.
And here's a fun prop bet for you involving Gov. Maura Healey, who you might know by now is a former point guard. How many times in any given speech by Healey will she draw analogies between her work and basketball? I would set the over/under at three for now, but maybe she'll get tired of it.
What are the chances of this fantasy becoming reality? There was more than $300 million wagered on the 2020 Biden-Trump showdown at just one British sportsbook, so there's obviously lots of money to be made on political betting. And you know what they say about money in American politics - it talks, and everything else walks.
But one question about political wagering integrity (if that's not an oxymoron) needs to be answered: how are you going to prevent politicians from shaving points or outright throwing an election by doing or saying dumb things?
