Fantasy Football draft preview: Breakouts, busts, and sleepers at the big positions
BOSTON -- The preseason is over and the real football season is just over a week away, which means it's time to start putting together your fantasy team. If you're in a year-long league, that means you're likely putting in some final preps for your draft.
Fantasy draft day is one of the best days for everyone in the league. You get together, enjoy some grub and some beverages, and then let the picks fly off the board. The ones who know what they're doing enjoy putting together a winner, and the ones who don't .... well the ones who know what they're doing enjoy watching those who don't have a mid-draft meltdown.
Most of the pre-draft heavy lifting is likely done by now, unless you treat your fantasy draft like a college exam and just go on an epic cram session the night before. But everyone can always use a little extra help; maybe a sleeper here or a player you MUST avoid there.
For that, we turn to CBS Sports fantasy football expert Heath Cummings, who has compiled his position previews ahead of the 2023 season. Here are players you should look to snag in your draft, ones you should steer clear of at all costs, and some that may be able to swing the balance of power in your league in the later rounds.
Quarterback
Breakout: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The truth is, I think the only skill Tagovailoa needs to improve is protecting himself. He averaged 23.2 FPPG last year in his healthy games, which was better than Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. A second year in Mike McDaniel's system with arguably the best pass-catching duo in the NFL means Tagovailoa has top-three upside this season if he plays 17 games. He spent the offseason learning jiu-jitsu, and the art of the fall for just this purpose.
Bust: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
This is about as predictable as it gets. We get to August, a QB is being drafted in Round 1, and we all call him a bust because no quarterback should be drafted in Round 1 of a one-QB league. I don't have any actual concerns about Mahomes, just his cost. Even if you're in one of those leagues where QBs fly off the board in Round 1 and 2, don't go chasing them. Eventually everyone will have a signal caller, you'll have a stacked roster, and you can still draft a couple of sleepers and it will work just fine.
Sleeper: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones is actually going one pick after Richardson, at QB17. I'm not the biggest fan of Jones as a passer, but he's one of the best running QBs in the league and he just added Darren Waller. He should improve on last year's 19.7 FPPG and be a solid high-end QB2 you can stream against the right matchups.
Click here for Heath Cummings' full quarterback preview.
Running Back
Breakout: Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Mattison takes over for Dalvin Cook, who was cut this offseason. Mattison topped 50% of the snaps three times in his first four years in the league. He topped 100 yards from scrimmage and 20 PPR Fantasy points in all three games. That is not a fair expectation in 2023, but he does have top-12 upside and he's a near guarantee as a top-20 back if he doesn't get hurt.
Bust: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Listen, nobody wants to do this. But when there is a 29-year-old running back with 1,877 career touches being drafted in the first round, we don't have a lot of choice. The Titans offensive line may be the worst in the NFL, and it is hard to know what to expect from Ryan Tannehill. If Tannehill is OK, it may be that the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins means the Titans will throw more. The truth is, Henry has bucked just about every trend we know of for running backs. But there is too much age and injury risk to draft him in Round 1. We are more comfortable with him at the two-three turn.
Sleeper: Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
With J.D. McKissic gone, Gibson is primed to take on a majority of the work on passing downs in Eric Bienemy's offense that is expected to heavily feature the screen game. Gibson has at least 42 catches each of the past two seasons and has the upside to top 60 in 2023. That, combined with 10-12 rush attempts per game gives Gibson a chance at borderline RB2 production, which makes his Round 9 price tag a bargain.
Click here for Heath Cummings' full running back preview.
Wide Receiver
Breakout: Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson averaged 2.26 yards per target as a rookie. There are five rookies who were better by that metric from 2013-2021. Their names are Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown. That's the trajectory Watson finds himself on. Jordan Love is an obvious downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, but he may not be much worse than Rodgers was last year. If he's not, and Watson stays healthy, the receiver has top-12 upside in 2023.
Bust: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf is being selected one spot (at wide receiver) behind [Cleveland's Amari] Cooper and eight spots higher than I would like to take him. He has had a hard enough time separating from Tyler Lockett, but now that the team has added Jaxon Smith-Njigba I'm concerned we will never see Metcalf as a true alpha No. 1 wide receiver. I wouldn't draft Metcalf until at least Round 5 and I wouldn't draft him as a top-24 WR in full PPR.
Sleeper: Niko Collins, Houston Texans
Collins is entering Year 3, a common breakout year for wide receivers, with a big QB upgrade when the team drafted C.J. Stroud. He'll face competition from John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell, but Collins is also the odds-on favorite to lead the team in targets this year. The expectation should be that he is a borderline No. 3 WR. I also love Tank Dell as a sleeper.
Click here for Heath Cummings' full wide receiver preview.
Tight End
Breakout: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
When you contextualize Pitts' first two seasons, he has been better than his Fantasy numbers. His 23.5% target per route run rate would be good for a wide receiver, or any tight end, much less a tight end in his first two years in the league. His 2.02 yards per route run as a rookie was flat-out elite. Pitts has shown that he's every bit as good as his draft capital suggests. He just needs an offense that doesn't look like it was constructed in the 1940s and a quarterback who can hit the side of the barn. What we saw from Desmond Ridder, and Arthur Smith when Ridder was the starter, gives me hope. Ridder averaged more than five more pass attempts per game than Marcus Mariota and averaged 33 more yards per game in his final three starts. More importantly, we generally expect quarterbacks to take their biggest leap from Year 1 to Year 2, and we often see coaches extend their QBs leash when that leap happens. If Ridder takes even a step forward, Pitts should be an easy top-five tight end.
Bust: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Kittle is a superstar talent, so this isn't a fun case to make. But when Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are all healthy, I fully expect Kittle to be the fourth option in a low-volume pass offense that may suffer from subpar quarterback play. Kittle produced below 40 yards in nine of his last 13 games in 2022, including the playoffs.
Sleeper: Irv Smith, Cincinnati Bengals
Remember Smith? He was a tight end sleeper fixture for a couple of years. He may finally wake up. One of the undercover stories of the offseason is that Smith appears to be the No. 1 tight end for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. That role has been worth five targets per game in the past, which is more than enough to sustain a top-12 tight end in an elite offense. Smith is free in most leagues right now.
Click here for Heath Cummings' full tight end preview.
