What's the best argument for Dustin Pedroia to make the Hall of Fame?
BOSTON -- Dustin Pedroia is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time, though it looks like the former Red Sox second baseman will fall well short of being part of Cooperstown's Class of 2025. Pedroia's case for the Hall of Fame is an interesting one, though it appears many voters are going to need to be convinced that he's worthy of enshrinement.
Pedroia had a stellar 14-year career in Boston and is beloved by fans for the attitude and commitment he brought to the Red Sox. No one played harder and no one wanted to succeed more than the 5-foot-9 Pedroia, and it earned him a Rookie of the Year, an AL MVP, and four All-Star nods. Pedroia also played a key role on two World Series championship teams in Boston, and was inducted into the team's Hall of Fame in 2024.
But injuries cut his career short, and longevity is the biggest argument against the diminutive infielder's case. With the Class of 2025 set to be announced Tuesday, it looks like Pedroia will come up well short of the 75 percent of votes needed for enshrinement.
Could voters be convinced to put Pedroia in Cooperstown in the coming years? Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs didn't vote for Pedroia, but as he does with each candidate, wrote in great detail about the case for and the case against putting Pedroia in the Hall of Fame. He discussed his feelings on Pedroia in a recent interview with CBS News Boston's Joe Weil.
Dustin Pedroia's case for the Hall of Fame
Jaffe grew up a Yankees fan and admitted that he was a bit biased against Pedroia early in his playing career. But he also said that Pedroia's profile was one of his favorites to write, because it opens up such a great discussion for Cooperstown.
"Taking an objective look, I think I appreciate him more and understand more of what he meant to Red Sox fans," said Jaffe. "The things I sort of underappreciated in his career, this was a good way to appreciate that. This might have been, relative to the likelihood I was going to vote for him and the sheer process of assembling, this might have been my favorite profile to write in the whole series."
Jaffe said that Pedroia's peak seasons are his strongest case for enshrinement. When Pedroia was in his best -- and healthiest -- there were few better second basemen in baseball.
"Dustin Pedroia has a very peak-centric case. His career numbers don't measure up to guys like Joe Morgan or someone like that, the guys who have the peak and longevity going for them," explained Jaffe. "But he does have an appeal to voters who are mostly peak-minded. His case vaguely resembles that of Nomar Garciaparra, to put it on a scale of another recent Red Sox favorite. It's basically an all-peak candidacy, and the Hall does have a few of those guys. But they're basically the exception of the rule."
Pedroia was at his peak from 2008-16 and turned in a 46.7 WAR, which was seventh in baseball over that stretch. He finished his career with a 51.9 WAR and a 41.0 peak WAR. His 46.5 JAWS (Jaffe's system that evaluates a players worthiness of the Hall of Fame compared to other Hall of Famers at their position) has him short of enshrinement, according to Jaffe.
"But as far as second basemen on this ballot go, Pedroia is still looking up at [Chase] Utley (64.5/49.3/56.9 in a career that was about 1,100 PA longer). Among second basemen, Pedroia's 41.0 peak score ranks 16th, 3.4 points below the standard — about half a win per year — and below 12 of the 20 enshrinees at the position," Jaffe wrote in his Pedroia profile. "The eight second basemen he's ahead of were all elected via the Veterans Committee; he has a higher JAWS than seven of them. He doesn't outdo any of the BBWAA honorees, however."
But Jaffe believes that if enough voters only weigh the peak of Pedroia's career, he'll get a spot in Cooperstown. Pedroia's postseason success and the personal accolades he earned along the way certainly help his cause too.
"This was a guy who was on pace to being a Hall of Famer. With a normal career progression, I think we'd be talking about him as a lock," said Jaffe. "My JAWS system, it gives you the objective data and you can compare that to players at the position in the Hall, but you bring other info to that process. I think Pedroia winning an MVP, Rookie of the Year, two World Series, [four] Gold Gloves, All-Star appearances -- you weigh all of that as well. You see this guy was regarded as a star in his day."
Did Manny Machado cost Pedroia a spot in the Hall of Fame?
The elephant in the room of Pedroia's candidacy rests on one of baseball's great "What Ifs," as in "What would Pedroia's career have looked like if it hadn't been for Manny Machado?"
In April of 2017, Machado (then with the Baltimore Orioles) spiked Pedroia's left calf at second base on an attempted double play by the Red Sox. Pedroia had undergone knee surgery during the offseason, but the injury he suffered from Machado's slide essentially ended his career.
Pedroia missed a week after that incident and went on the IL three times due to knee soreness before his season ended in mid-August. He played just nine games total during the 2018 and 2019 seasons before calling it a career.
While Machado's slide did Pedroia no favors, Jaffe doesn't believe it definitively ended Pedroia's career. Injuries were already catching up to the second baseman at that point, and says Pedroia would tell you the same thing.
"As I did when I went through the litany of injuries that he dealt with, it sounds like the surgery he had before that season -- he was already arthritic and already had bone-on-bone in there. I don't think the Manny Machado slide precipitated this to the extent that some people would like to believe. I think he himself would tell you that too. He would also tell you this is what comes with the territory of being a middle infielder," said Jaffe.
"Machado's slide, we all agree was too aggressive for what it was. But within the vast spectrum of baseball history, it wasn't an outlier. It certainly didn't help his cause, but Pedroia was already dealing with deteriorating conditions in his knees, and he'd tell you that," he added.
Be sure to watch Joe Weil's entire chat with Jay Jaffe in the video player above, as the Fangraphs scribe shares his thoughts on the other former Red Sox players up for enshrinement in 2025.
