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Johns Hopkins Researchers Release Model That Aims To Forecast Whether A COVID-19 Patient's Condition Will Improve, Deteriorate

BALTIMORE (WJZ) -- Researchers at Johns Hopkins University released a new COVID-19 prediction model, which can forecast whether or not a patient's condition will likely improve or deteriorate.

Dr. Brian Garibaldi is an Associate Professor of Medicine and Physiology at Johns Hopkins and a lead researcher in what's called the COVID Inpatient Risk Calculator.

It uses information from medical records of patients who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 to understand what happens throughout a person's experience with the virus.


"This particular paper is to understand how patient trajectories can change based on factors of presentation to the hospital, things like their age, and underlying co-morbidities, but also their initial lab tests and vital signs," Dr. Garibaldi said.

This allows doctors to anticipate what might happen to a COVID-19 patient when they arrive at the hospital, make decisions about the level of care he or she might need and how to allocate resources, especially in the event of a surge.

"And really make sure that, as providers and as health systems, we understand who the vulnerable people might be and how to get them the care they need and to understand their goals and preferences as they interface with the health system," Dr. Garibaldi said.

He said the next step is to use this data to create a model that can predict what can happen to a COVID-19 patient day by day, and even more precisely what can happen minute by minute of their stay in the hospital.

For the latest information on coronavirus go to the Maryland Health Department's website or call 211. You can find all of WJZ's coverage on coronavirus in Maryland here.

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