BLOG: Wintry Stretch

The rather complicated weather pattern characterized by a deep trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will begin to break down tomorrow... but before then another round of accumulating snowfall will be in the works as a surface low develops offshore and quickly heads off to the northeast this afternoon. That said, a burst of heavier snowfall is expected later this morning and into early this afternoon from Baltimore on north and east as the surface low strengthens. We will be in the vicinity of an inverted trough extending northwest from the surface low and along the
path of vorticity maxima aloft, and the combination of these features warrants a forecast of 3-6 inches along the Delaware Bay and in southern New Jersey with 1-3 inches expected from Baltimore on north and east. with around 3 inches in the city. South and west of BWI we can expected lesser amounts of snow given their distance from the surface low and surface trough.  The snow will come to an end late this afternoon and early this evening with skies clearing on a dry west-northwest flow.
 
The weekend will end with partial sunshine and seasonably cold temperatures, though it will be a bit brisk in the afternoon... we've seen far worse, however. A stray flurry cannot be ruled out as a string of vorticity progresses through the region, but chances of snowfall are quite low at this time, on the order of 10% given how dry the low-levels of the atmosphere will be. A brief mention will suffice. A mix of sun and clouds will be the story for Monday as 500 mb heights rise and we find ourselves in the descending portion of an upper-level jet streak. Clouds will be on the
increase Tuesday as an upper-level trough approaches from the west and a more favorable jet configuration becomes present. With that, snow will be possible in the afternoon but the bulk of the moisture will hold off until the overnight hours. A surface low is expected to form along the Virginia capes and head northeastward, and clearly the storm track will be instrumental in determining how much snow we see across the viewing area. Preliminarily indications are that a few inches of snow will be possible Tuesday and Tuesday night... we shall see. The end of the week looks chilly, but not bitterly cold with partial sunshine on a northwesterly flow.

Have a great day!