BLOG: Wet Weekend Shaping Up

The first weekend of March will be a rather unsettled one across the Mid-Atlantic with clouds today and rain tomorrow, possibly heavy by the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will be mercifully mild, however, so at least we wont be dealing with a cold rain. Precipitation will begin tonight thanks to a moist low-level southeasterly flow around the periphery of a large high off the coast of Newfoundland. Given that drier air will remain in the mid-levels at this time whatever materializes early on will be light, in the form of a stray shower or patchy drizzle. Deep-layer
moisture will arrive late tonight and early on Sunday as an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary slide eastward. Given the strong moisture transport from the Gulf, strong height falls, and a favorable upper-level jet configuration, we could be looking at a significant amount of rainfall by midday and possibly into the evening hours as well. Flash flood watches are in effect across Pennsylvania to account for this and we feel this is certainly justified; in fact, flood watches may be required in the Greater Baltimore area as well.
 
Monday should see the sun return with cooler reading on the thermometer as well, but it could be much worse for early March. High pressure will nose southward from northern Quebec through midweek with sunshine, but by Wednesday clouds will be on the increase as another storm system approaches from the west. This too could be a significant rainmaker when it arrives, which for now looks to be overnight and into Thursday.

Have a great day!