BLOG: Wet Sunday

The message is the same this morning... mild with rain. A cold front will slowly march eastward today with low pressure taking shape across the Carolinas by the afternoon, and ahead of these features deep moisture will continue to surge northward. A favorable upper-level jet configuration and strong height falls will support heavy rain, and rainfall totals through this evening will average an inch or so with some locations seeing double this amount. At least it will be mild.
 
Rain will taper off overnight and clearing will commence with sunshine becoming quite prominent by midday, but with a strong breeze and temperatures some 10 degrees lower it will feel chilly. High pressure will press southward out of Quebec with sunshine for Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday -- but by the afternoon clouds will increase as mid and high-level moisture stream in. Rain should hold off until Wednesday night and Thursday as a cold front approaches. Relatively warm air will be in abundance one again with this storm system so rain will be the concern and
not snow or ice. Model guidance is having a difficult time resolving how the upper-level trough will evolve as it makes its' way into the East. The GFS develops a closed low along the Mid-Atlantic coast, meaning a prolonged rain event for the Tri-State area while the GGEM and ECMWF develop a closed low farther north, meaning Friday may be wet with Saturday dry... we have plenty of time to pin this down though.