BLOG: Warm Again

Thanks to high pressure offshore and a large upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico the weekend will end on a pleasant note across the Northeast. A broad southwesterly flow will push temperatures above normal throughout the region, and with a good deal of sunshine it will feel more like mid-October than mid-November.

Changes begin to take place overnight, however, as high clouds stream in as the jet stream pushes northward. Clouds will thicken on Monday with an isolated shower or two not out of the question... that said, the farther north and west one goes the better shot at seeing a little rainfall.

A weak cold front will arrive on Tuesday with showers expected with this feature, but the rainfall will be fairly light so it's not as if we'll have a washout to deal with. The front will stall out nearby and moisture will ride over this boundary on Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches on Wednesday.

A second feature to watch is an upper-level low currently to the south of San Diego. This disturbance is spreading rain across southern California and western Arizona, and as it heads eastward it will tap into a little Gulf moisture on Tuesday. By Tuesday evening the low will have opened up and begin dampening out as it heads into a strongly confluent flow over the Mississippi Valley. As this energy heads across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday it may be able to enhance the rainfall over the area... but confidence is pretty low at this point with regard to how much rainfall we'll have to contend with. Something to keep an eye on.