BLOG: Super Sunday Forecast
A decent day is upcoming as sunshine will be fairly abundant and temperatures rise into the low and mid 40s across the viewing area. It will remain a little breezy this morning, but winds will subside by the afternoon so not too bad.
Monday will be better with regard to winds, but as a trough approaches from the west clouds will be on the increase such that generally overcast conditions are expected by the afternoon. Temperatures will manage to make it into the mid 40s, however, so despite the cloud cover it will be relatively comfortable.
As mentioned yesterday morning, a broad southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough will bring milder air up the coast as precipitation begins to break out, and it still appears that rain will be the primary p-type owing to the warm boundary layer. That said, the rain may briefly mix with snow before coming to an end by sunrise Tuesday in far northeastern portions if the viewing area. Something of note would be one model which depicts a surface low along over the Delmarva Monday night and then near the benchmark for Tuesday morning. The solution seems a little better than the GFS given the parameters in place to support a surface low coming up the coast, namely a strong jet stream along the coast and the best frontogenesis along the coast, and the strongest differential positive vorticity advection along the coast... but yet the GFS inexplicably develops the low too late and well offshore. The euro may be a little ambitious, but the theme is likely correct and the latest GGEM is a good compromise with a surface near Wilmington, NC at 00z Tuesday and just southeast of the benchmark by 12z. In summary, the NAM and GFS may be too dry and too cool in the mid-levels while at the same time perhaps a touch too warm in the boundary layer.
