BLOG: Mild Forecast Ahead

A fairly straightforward forecast over the next several days as a trough across the Northeast lifts out and is eventually replaced by a longwave ridge next week. A couple of upper-level disturbances will move across the region as the trough heads eastward this weekend.  The first feature in question is moving across the Great Lakes region and will make its' way into the Northeast by this afternoon. Moisture is limited with the first disturbance, so much of the
low-level moisture will downslope away with nothing more than a stray sprinkle or flurry expected for far northern and western reaches of the viewing area. The second feature of "concern" will be a band of warm advection moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley overnight and then into the Northeast for Sunday. At the very least this will spell more in the way of cloud cover early in the day, but with better forcing for lift in the low-levels and the aid of a
weak stream of vorticity aloft we should see a few rain or snow showers for northern and far western portions of the viewing area. Again the Baltimore metro should be dry with more sunshine than clouds by the afternoon.
 
Monday is a little tricky with regard to temperatures as a clipper passes by to the north. The timing of the system will be critical in determining how much warmth we materialize. Should the clipper move faster than anticipated and cold advection begins early in the morning then we may do no better than 50 or so... conversely if it tracks slower across New England then we could spike into the upper 50s as warmer air surges northward. Given that we're still three days away,  we'll let continuity ride... breezy and low/mid 50s with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Tuesday through the end of the week will feature a nice warmup across the entire region as a longwave trough digs into the West and ridging becomes established from the Plains and across the East. We likely will approach the 60 degree mark by Thursday with Friday looking to eclipse that mark. Should we break 60 degrees it will be the first time since the 2nd of January!
Next rain chance could arrive as early as Saturday as a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region and flattens the ridge a bit.