Priced out Bay Area residents more likely to own homes within 5 years after leaving, report says

A new report tracking Bay Area residents who have left the region finds they are more likely to own a home within five years, but face other tradeoffs when it comes to the quality of schools and incomes.

Researchers from the nonpartisan California Policy Lab found that Bay Area residents who left the state were 11 to 18% more likely to own a home after one year. After five years, homeownership rates rose by 33%.

"The Bay Area continues to offer tremendous economic opportunity, but it's also the most expensive metro in the country," Evan White, executive director of the lab at UC Berkeley and a study co-author, said in a statement.

People who have left the region, whether within California or outside the state, moved to neighborhoods where home values average about 50% lower and rents about 33% lower. The researchers found that movers leave Bay Area neighborhoods that are average in terms of income, home values and demographics, but the movers themselves have credit scores 23 points lower than their neighbors and carry 2.3 times as much student debt.

While their new neighborhoods are more affordable, the researchers noted former residents who left the state arrived in places where their new neighbors earn about 23% less than their old neighbors.

School quality is also a concern, particularly for movers who leave for other parts of California. Researchers found that former residents' new local elementary schools have 4 to 8% lower proficiency in both math and reading on California standardized tests.

The study found that movers relocate to neighborhoods that have higher overall vulnerability on the U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index, which captures exposure to extreme weather and disasters, along with social, economic and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

"Our research shows many residents are achieving affordable homeownership elsewhere, but often at the cost of lower incomes, lower-performing schools, or greater climate risk," White added.

Researchers also noted that while San Francisco experienced outmigration during the pandemic, the city has experienced net-in migration since mid-2024

Prospective buyers in the city have been dealing with bidding wars and homes selling far above asking. The rental market has also proven to be tough, with the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment going over $6,000 a month, according to a recent analysis.

"One of the broader questions our report raises is who gets to live in the Bay Area?" said co-author Brett Fischer. "Our research strongly suggests that high housing prices are pushing people out, a trend that some fear may be exacerbated by the AI boom putting more pressure on housing prices."

The research draws from credit data that anonymously tracked the same households from 2014 through 2025. Among those who moved over that timeframe, about 54% moved within the same county in the Bay Area, while another 19% moved elsewhere in the Bay Area.

Fifteen percent of movers left the state entirely, while 6% moved to the Central Valley, another 4% moved to the Los Angeles region and the remainder moved elsewhere in California.