Davis Joint Unified School District (DJUSD) leaders say they are seeing a dramatic decline in student enrollment, with data predicting the district will lose 1,000 students over the next decade.

Drastic action needs to be taken, and that could include school closures.

"We don't exactly know what our future holds," said Maria Clayton, Chief Strategy Officer for DJUSD.

Thursday night, DJUSD hosted the final meeting in a three-part series of workshops, asking community members to weigh in on proposed consolidation plans for the district's schools.

District leaders say they are planning early for the "worst case scenario."

"What we're doing right now is bringing forward two concepts to the public for vetting that deal with that worst-case scenario of losing 100 students year-over-year for 10 years, and how we might deal with that challenge," Clayton said.

Concept A proposed to the community would close Patwin Elementary and likely a second elementary school and one junior high campus in the future.

Concept B proposes a more aggressive district-wide redesign that would close Patwin Elementary and Birch Lane Elementary, without projected future closures.

"I'm trying to come in with a spirit of openness and listening and not get too panicked too early, but the idea of it breaks my heart. I think that Birch Lane is just a really important part of our neighborhood community," said Christine Haider-Winnett, a Birch Lane mother who attended the meeting.

As for why the district's numbers are down?

School leaders cite declining birth rates and a lack of housing options and affordability in Davis.

The district says its future depends on two major housing development projects in the city.

The first is the proposed Village Farms development, and the second is the Willowgrove development. Both housing projects will have to be approved by voters in 2026.

"Davis has a measure on the books since 2000, renewed by a vote in 2020, that requires that any proposed annexation of agricultural or open space for urban development must go to the voters. The City is working on development agreements with the aforementioned proposed developments," a city of Davis spokesperson told CBS Sacramento.

The district says its enrollment challenges are not a Yolo County trend.

It all comes down to new housing.

"The districts that are building are seeing growth, or at least stabilization, and that's the difference. That's what we just want people to understand, that housing and schools are connected," Clayton said.

Until a decision is made, parents remain hopeful.

"Everyone, I think, cares about these schools. I'm hoping we can just all come together and make some good decisions," said Haider-Winnett. 

If those two housing development projects are approved by voters, the district says they are projected to gain 1,000 students over the next 15 years. 

Upon approval, school closures would not be necessary, but redrawing school zone boundaries would be. 

A decision by the Board of Education is not expected until spring 2027, with the first impacts to be seen in the 2028-2029 school year. 

Read through DJUSD's full proposal at this link.

Here is the full breakdown of both Concept A and Concept B proposals that the district is considering: 

Concept A: School closure

School site impacts: 

• Close Patwin Elementary in 2028-29
• Korematsu, Birch Lane, Willett, Pioneer and North Davis Elementary schools would enroll the students from Patwin
• Current Patwin Elementary resident students would have priority to transition to Willett
• Native Family Resource Center would remain at the Patwin campus
• The District would assign a Fairfield Elementary Principal
• Davis School for Independent Study (DSIS) would move to the Patwin campus
• Preschool/childcare may open at the Patwin campus based on demand

Student and staff impacts:

• Fairfield Elementary students would matriculate to Willett
• Possible Redrawing of School Boundaries
• Services follow the Students
• Displaced Staff will be placed in accordance with bargaining agreements

Future impacts: 

This concept will likely require the following future actions if no new development occurs:

• Due to a decline of 600 elementary students by 2030, a secondary elementary school will likely need to be closed in 2030-31.
• Due to a decline of 300 junior high students (grades 7-9) by 2034, a junior high school will likely need to be closed in 2034-35.

Concept B: District-wide redesign

School site impacts: 

• Close Patwin and Birch Lane Elementary in 2028-29
• All District 6th graders would be enrolled in one of the three neighborhood junior high schools (Harper, Holmes, Emerson) or Da Vinci Junior High School for the 2028-29 school year
• Korematsu, Willett, Pioneer and North Davis Elementary Schools would enroll the TK-5 students from Patwin and Birch Lane
• Montessori Programming would move to the Marguerite Montgomery Elementary School campus
• The District would assign a Fairfield Elementary School Principal
• DSIS would move to Patwin or Birch Lane, or other campus TBD
• We expect 1-12 portable classrooms would be needed for this concept

Student and staff impacts:

• DaVinci Junior High School students would attend on the DaVinci High School campus, which would become a 6-12 grade program
• Birch Lane Elementary School Special Day Class would move to another elementary campus
• Fairfield Elementary students would matriculate to Willett
• District-wide elementary and junior high school boundaries would need to be redrawn
• Services follow the Students
• Displaced Staff placed in accordance with bargaining agreements
• Decisions about whether students who live in a changed boundary and who need to change elementary schools would be made at a future date

Future impacts:

• This concept will not require the closure of a junior high.