Eagles-Packers: odds, best bets, prediction for Week 12
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The Eagles escaped Indianapolis with a win over the Colts last week thanks to Jalen Hurts' rushing touchdown late in the fourth quarter. It was an ugly game for the Birds, but it got them back in the win column suffering their first loss of the season to the Washington Commanders the previous week.
The Eagles will be back on prime time again on Sunday night as they welcome Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to Lincoln Financial Field.
These aren't the same Rodgers-led Packers teams football fans have become accustomed to during his time in Green Bay. They're currently 4-7 and sit in third place in the NFC North.
Rodgers, who has been playing with a broken thumb, isn't playing well this year, but you can still never count him out.
Packers (+6.5, -110) at Eagles (+6.5, -110)
Over/under: 46
Nov. 27 at 8:20 p.m. at Lincoln Financial Field
Here are my favorite bets and prediction for Eagles-Packers:
Jake Elliott's total made extra points
Jake Elliott's total made extra points is listed at 2.5 (+102), and I like the over on this prop.
On the season, Elliott is 28 for 29 on extra point attempts in nine games. He's also gone over 2.5 extra points made in six of those nine games.
There's only been three games this season where the Packers didn't allow at least 23 points – Week 2 versus the Chicago Bears, Week 3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Week 9 versus the Detroit Lions. In every other game, opponents have scored 23 points or more against Green Bay's defense that's allowing 22.1 points per game.
Sunday night sets up nicely for the Eagles' offense to get back on track, and Elliott should hit his over in extra points as a result.
Miles Sanders TD
Miles Sanders hasn't found the end zone since Week 9 against the Houston Texas, but I like him to score this week against the Packers at +118.
The Packers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the run, allowing 135.8 rushing yards per game. They also allow running backs to gain 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks fifth-worst in the league.
Like they have all season, the Eagles will most likely use their offensive line to their advantage in this matchup and run the ball, which will give Sanders plenty of opportunities to score.
Longshot TD prop
With Dallas Goedert sidelined, Quez Watkins will get more opportunities in the passing game for the Eagles, which is why I think it's worth sprinkling a little bit of money on him to score at +325.
I get it, it's a long shot, but he scored last week and might've the week before if not for falling and then fumbling the ball after catching a bomb from Jalen Hurts.
The Packers are one of the worst teams against slot wideouts in the NFL, and Watkins lines up in the slot more than any other Eagles wide receiver.
Same game parlay +2200
- Sanders TD
- Sanders over 66.5 rushing yards
- Rodgers to throw an INT
- Christian Watson TD
If you would've told me before the season started that I'd be betting on Rodgers to throw an interception against the Eagles in a prime time game in November, I would've called you a liar, but here we are. Rodgers has already thrown seven this season, and the Eagles defense creates takeaways. Plus, cornerback Darius Slay is hungry to get an interception on Rodgers.
Christian Watson and Rodgers have developed quite the connection over the past couple weeks, and I think that continues against the Eagles. They could put Watson, who's 6 foot 5, in the slot against 5 foot 9 backup cornerback Josiah Scott to create a mismatch.
Prediction
Eagles 27, Packers 14
At 4-7, the Packers are desperate for a win to keep their season alive, but I think the Eagles will cover and get the win over Green Bay.
Last week was a rough outing for the Eagles' offense without Dallas Goedert, but they should be able to bounce back against Green Bay's defense. Jalen Hurts and his two star wideouts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, could be in for big games. In three of the past four weeks, the Packers' defense has allowed at least one wideout to eclipse 100 receiving yards.
The Eagles also have the advantage in the trenches versus Green Bay's defensive line. The Packers' run stop win rate ranks fourth worst in the league, while the Eagles rank in the top five in the league in team run block win rate, according to ESPN analytics.
Sanders, Hurts and the rest of the Eagles backs should be able to move the ball efficiently against Green Bay's rushing defense.
You can never count out Rodgers, but this is a different Green Bay team than previous ones in his career. The Packers don't have a dynamic threat on the outside since losing Davante Adams, despite Watson's five touchdowns over the past two weeks.
The Eagles' defense will have to hone in on running back Aaron Jones, but he can't do it by himself.
Once the game ends on Sunday night, the Eagles will be the first team in the league to record 10 wins.
All odds are courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook.
