According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs experienced trading profits for itself every single day in the first quarter. However, those following the advice didn't fare so well. Seven of the investment bank's nine "recommended top trades for 2010" have been money losers. (Though to be fair, nine of Goldman's 11 recommendations in 2009 made money.) This year:
- If you bought the Polish zloty versus the Japanese yen, you would have lost 14 percent.
- If you bought Chinese stocks in Hong Kong, you would have lost 9.4 percent.
- If you traded the British pound against the New Zealand dollar, you would have lost 9.8 percent.
There are two factors that helped contribute to Goldman's trading results:
- First, the demise of several competitors (such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers)
- Second, the reduction in capital that investment banks are willing/able to commit to risk-taking
Both Wall Street and the financial media need you to tune in, to trade and to pay large fees for investment advice based what the academic research has found to be the equivalent of astrology. You're best served by following this advice from Warren Buffett: "We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."