Will mortgage rates fall after the March Fed meeting?
Heading into March, there were multiple items borrowers were monitoring that could impact their mortgage rate offers. The first, the unemployment report for February, was released on March 6, and it showed an uptick in the rate. The latest inflation reading, meantime, will be released on March 11, and it could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy (as could the unemployment rise). On March 17 and March 18, however, the central bank will meet for the first time since January, and the future of interest rates will be a key agenda item.
Homebuyers and homeowners hoping to refinance will be paying close attention. Mortgage interest rates in 2025, after all, declined by more than a full percentage point, largely due to the Fed's interest rate-cutting actions. But rates here have held steady in the opening months of 2026, pending another cut or a significant financial datapoint that could lead to rates declining organically.
Going into next week's meeting, then, many borrowers may be wondering about the potential for mortgage rates to fall once the meeting has wrapped. But what is the likelihood of that actually happening? Below, we'll detail what borrowers should consider (and what they should do in the interim).
Start by seeing how low your current mortgage rate offers are here.
Will mortgage rates fall after the March Fed meeting?
Right now, the chances of a Fed rate cut on the 18th appear low. How low? There's just a 2.7% chance the central bank will cut rates next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. While that likelihood can and will change heading into the meeting, it's unlikely to change so materially to make a rate cut more realistic. And without a Fed rate cut, mortgage rates are likely to stay static in the days following the March Fed meeting. That noted, while a rate cut can push mortgage interest rates down, it's not the only factor. Comments made post-meeting by Fed officials also have the potential to impact rates, potentially in a downward direction, though they're unlikely to be as impactful as a formal rate reduction.
Still, as the year progresses and with a new Federal Reserve chairman in line for later in the spring, Fed rates can and likely will change (there's just a 59% chance rates will remain the same by the conclusion of the June meeting, for example, according to the CME Group). And as the potential for rate cuts becomes more realistic, lenders may preemptively start reducing their offers to borrowers to remain competitive.
This is why it's critical to shop around for rates and lenders, both online and in-person, to see which offers are the most affordable. Shopping around has been shown to save borrowers up to a full percentage point off the rate they'd otherwise receive, and with different lenders having different responses to Fed activity, this is arguably more important than usual to do.
It's also important to note that the Fed is just one driver behind mortgage interest rates, albeit an important one. Factors such as unemployment, inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield can also drive mortgage rates up or down, even if the Fed keeps its interest rate policy unchanged. Keep an eye, then, on mortgage rates each day for timely (but brief) opportunities to lock in a below-average rate (and make sure that your credit is in good shape before taking any action).
Learn more about your current mortgage rate options here.
The bottom line
With mortgage purchase and some mortgage refinance rates both under 6% now, borrowers once again have cost-effective options to consider. At the same time, these rates are still much higher than what was available at the start of the decade, so it's understandably tempting to wait for further declines. And those could come alongside Fed rate activity. But it's not likely to be this March. Weigh the pros and cons of waiting to better determine your next move, then, as it's not necessarily a clear decision. Consider speaking with a lender directly, too, who can answer your questions and better help you time your next move.
