Which companies will profit from Iran deal?

(MoneyWatch) The tentative agreement with Iran to limit its nuclear program could benefit auto, shipping and insurance companies.

The pact requires Iran to stop producing uranium strong enough to be used in nuclear weapons, eliminate its stock of higher-grade uranium and open its nuclear facilities to full international inspection. In return, the Iranians will get $6 billion to $7 billion in sanctions relief, $4.2 billion of which is assets being held by foreign governments. It will also be able to continue exporting oil at current levels, instead of the reduced amounts that were scheduled to go into effect.

Iran was the second-largest market for French carmaker Peugeot in 2011. That year the company sold nearly 458,000 vehicles to Iran as spare parts kits that were assembled there. Peugeot’s sales in Iran dropped fell 68 percent last year, costing the company more than $7 million in earnings a month, after trade restrictions were imposed and the company halted shipments in February of 2012. Korea’s Kia Motors was, along with Peugeot, one of the two largest foreign automakers in Iran prior to that date, and it is also expected to benefit under the new agreement.

American companies, which have been banned from doing business with Iran for decades, aren’t expected to see any direct benefit from the pact.

Although crude oil prices dropped when the deal with Iran was announced on Sunday, analysts believe the decline is temporary. In a note to investors on Monday, a Goldman Sachs analyst said, “We therefore believe that the volume of Iranian crude oil available to the international market will largely remain unchanged over at least the next six months.”

Fuel purchasers in India and Turkey, the main outlets for Iran’s oil, have already said they are unlikely to increase the orders they’ve already placed.

However, acting now could give these companies an advantage if Iran complies with the nuclear agreement, allowing for more negotiations and for further sanctions to be lifted. Iran is potentially a [lucrative market. It has one of the Middle East's largest consumer markets, and prior to sanctions going into effect was OPEC’s second-largest oil exporter.

According to the U.S. Treasury Department, sanctions have cost Iran $120 billion in lost revenue since 2010, when the U.S. and European Union began imposing strict penalties on anyone doing business with Iran. Last year the nation’s economy shrank by 5 percent, and it has continued to contract this year.

The Debka File, an intelligence and security news service published in English and Hebrew, reported last week that “Western governments, especially in West Europe, are so certain that Obama is set on a historic accord between the US and Iran, that they can see his foot lifting off the sanctions brakes. They are therefore already engaged in direct talks with Tehran about resumed business after the accord is in the bag, on a scale that would dwarf the volume of sanctions relief.”

In addition, there have been widespread reports of Iran wooing Western oil companies with long-term contracts. If the nation’s massive petroleum supplies ever do come fully back into the international market, it could mean lower gas costs for U.S. consumers.