What the Paul Ryan pick means

(CBS News) To say Mitt Romney's selection of Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., came out of nowhere might ring true for most who've don't know much about Ryan - and that's a lot of folks: 54 percent, according to a recent CNN poll - but to political observers he's been considered short-list material for Romney for a while. That said, it doesn't mean Romney played it safe with his choice, nor does it make the Ryan pick any less bold or risky.

The 42-year-old Ryan, from Janesville, Wis., has represented his swing district since his 1998 election at the age of 28. And he became a national political figure in recent years, especially after, as House Budget Chairman last year, he unveiled a controversial and debate-changing budget proposal - making him a darling not only to Romney but to conservatives.

His budget, which passed the Republican-led House twice in two different iterations and died in the Democratic Senate, called for cutting the deficit by $4.4 trillion over 10 years by repealing the president's health care bill, reforming Medicare and Medicaid and imposing hard spending caps.

Immediately after its unveiling, Romney became a vocal backer of it while Democrats accused Ryan of trying to fix the country's fiscal problems on the backs of the elderly and the poor. Be prepared to hear a lot of that coming from President Obama and congressional Democrats in their efforts to pick up more seats in the House and Senate.

Romney's selection of Ryan signals that he's going to try to make this election more than just about a referendum on Mr. Obama and his stewardship of the economy but about offering new, albeit somewhat controversial, solutions. The Wall Street Journal editorial board, in pushing for Romney to pick Ryan on Friday, laid out this thinking:

"The case for Mr. Ryan is that he best exemplifies the nature and stakes of this election," the Journal's editorial board wrote. "More than any other politician, the House Budget Chairman has defined those stakes well as a generational choice about the role of government and whether America will once again become a growth economy or sink into interest-group-dominated decline."

Like any presidential candidate's choice of a running mate, Romney's selection of Ryan has its share of possible risks and rewards.

Possible risks

• Ryan's hard line on Medicare - and Democrats' criticism - could resonate among an electorate that, traditionally, doesn't like politicians messing with entitlements. This is risky with older voters and especially risky in a battleground state like Florida with a large senior population. If Mr. Obama and the Democrats are successful at demonizing Ryan and Romney over Ryan's budget, not only will Romney find himself in serious trouble, but they could be putting Republicans running for the House and Senate at risk too.

• Ryan doesn't bring a diverse professional career to the table. To put it bluntly, he's spent virtually his entire career as an inside the Beltway wonk, having worked on Capitol Hill, in think tanks, as a speechwriter and as a congressman since he graduated from Miami University in 1992.

• That long, 13-and-a-half year career in the House of Representatives? That's a lot of votes for opposition researchers to sift through for potential ammunition to use against him.

Possible rewards

• There's no argument that conservatives will be thrilled by this choice. As Romney failed to gain traction over the summer and consternation grew among conservatives, who haven't necessarily embraced Romney from the get-go, calls increased for him to pick someone "bold", in conservatives' eyes. Romney's choice of Ryan should placate conservatives and, in a best-case scenario for Romney, excite the Republican base to get out and vote for this ticket. And when turnout is key (see Obama-McCain 2008), an energized base is always a good thing to have going for you.

• While the jury's out on whether a VP choice can help win votes in a specific state - it's been decades since a presidential candidate picked a running mate from a battleground state and 20 years since a VP choice arguably helped carry a state (Clinton-Gore and Tennessee in 1992) - Ryan's lifelong connection to Wisconsin could certainly come into play. The Badger State has eluded Republicans since Ronald Reagan last won in 1984, but before John McCain's drubbing in 2008, George W. Bush lost the state by less than 1 percent in 2000 and 2004, giving Republicans hope. On the other hand, an analysis by the New York Times, shows a Ryan choice would provide little help to Romney in Wisconsin.