Washington Wrap

Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester, Clothilde Ewing and Dan Furman of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.

Tuesday's Headlines

* New CBS/NYT Poll shows Bush and Kerry Neck and Neck

* Kerry's Day

* Convention Lineups Show Different Priorities

* Kerry Scores Points with Labor

* Race in Florida Heats Up

Bush and Kerry Neck and Neck: Despite concerns about his handling of Iraq, and his lowest overall approval rating of 42%, George Bush is still running neck and neck with John Kerry as the choice of registered voters, a new CBS/New York Times poll shows.

Kerry is the choice of 45% of registered voters, while Bush is the choice of 44%. This is a sharp turnaround for the Bush campaign in the span of just one month; in May, Kerry had opened up a wide 8-point lead over Bush. Kerry continues to do well with independents, holding a lead 44% to 37% for Bush – though Bush has cut into that margin: last month Kerry was up 16 points.

When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included, he draws 5%, leaving 42% for Kerry and 43% for Bush.

Although the poll was conducted before the transfer of power in Iraq, respondents showed they were more likely to believe Bush would do a better job than Kerry in steering the nation through a foreign crisis, and protecting it from future attacks. But the New York Times points out that Support for Bush's abilities in those areas has declined in recent months. "The poll was scattered with warning flags for Mr. Bush, and there was compelling evidence that his decision to take the nation to war against Iraq has left him in a precarious political position," reports the Times.

This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1053 adults, interviewed by telephone June 23-27, 2004. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the entire sample. Error for subgroups may be higher.

Kerry's Day: Sen. John Kerry will speak at the 33rd Annual Rainbow/PUSH Coalition & Citizenship Fund Conference on Tuesday, where he is expected to highlight education initiatives aimed at minority students. In a preview memo sent to CBS News, Kerry focused on increasing the number of women and minorities who attend college, particularly those who enroll in math and science programs.

Also at the Rainbow/PUSH on Tuesday will be Rep. Dick Gephardt. The potential veep is also speaking. No meeting between the two is currently known about.

As Kerry prepares to address the delegates, he is under fire from some members of the African American community, the Washington Post reports. "Civil rights leaders and academics are grumbling about his absence from black communities and a lack of top black officials in his campaign," explains the Post. Kerry's supporters, including Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, D-Md., chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, say the criticism is unfounded. "The candidate is very sensitive to the African American community," Cummings told the Post. "He's constantly asking me what else can he do."

This is no the first time questions about Kerry's commitment to minorities has been questioned. In April, several activists complained, echoing the current criticisms. At that point, the Kerry campaign had very few African American senior staff: deputy campaign manager Marcus Jadotte was one of few. Three months later, the campaign has hired Vernon Jordan to lead its debate negotiations and "has placed several black Americans in prominent positions, including Art Collins as a senior adviser, Brian Burke as director of policy outreach and Rodney Shelton, Rodney Capel and Tony Wilson as state directors in Arkansas, New York and Missouri, respectively. Terry Edmonds is director of speechwriting," says the Post. But that doesn't seem to be enough. Just Monday, the influential Rev. Jesse Jackson told the Post "I'm not very close to the campaign."

Convention Lineups Unveiled: The Democrats and Republicans unveiled their nominating convention speaking orders on Monday, with the Dems aiming to fire-up their base with speakers like Bill Clinton and Ted Kennedy and Republicans looking toward those elusive swing voters by highlighting party moderates like John McCain and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

As if party moderates were not enough to appeal to swing voters, one Democrat-in-name-only, Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia, will address the Republican conventioneers. Miller earlier this year announced his support for Bush's re-election and wrote a book eviscerating his fellow Democrats for what he calls an abandonment of its moderate and conservative wings.

Republicans announced their speaking schedule in the conference call with reporters on Monday. The GOP will kick things off on Aug. 30 with McCain, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his predecessor, Rudy Giuliani. Bloomberg will speak in the morning, with McCain and Giuliani speaking during primetime. The opening night, The Los Angeles Times reports, will also feature a tribute to late President Reagan.

Night Two will feature First Lady Laura Bush, Education Secretary Rod Paige and Schwarzenegger. Night Three will feature Dick Cheney and his wife, Lynne, and Zell Miller. Like Kerry, Bush will close the convention with an acceptance speech. New York Gov. George Pataki will officially nominate Bush and introduce him to the crowd.

The Los Angeles Times reports: "In showcasing Schwarzenegger, McCain, Giuliani and Pataki, the Bush team appeared to turn back to the script that worked so well four years ago, when they made the GOP convention in Philadelphia a pageant of ethnic and ideological diversity. Schwarzenegger, Giuliani and Pataki have all demonstrated appeal to cross-over voters by winning election in heavily Democratic constituencies. McCain has won strong support among independents and some Democrats for supporting campaign finance reform and speaking out when he differs with Bush. … How much that will help Bush this year remains uncertain. Polls have shown he is a far more divisive figure than he was in 2000."

While the Democratic schedule has not been officially released, CBS News has learned that at the Democratic convention in Boston, Clinton will speak on the opening night, July 26, and Kennedy will speak on the second day. The TBD veep will speak on July 28. John Kerry will close the convention on July 29 with his acceptance speech. A Democratic official tells CBS News that a couple of Kerry's vanquished quasi-rivals, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich, will play a role in the convention.

USA Today reports that Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, his two daughters, and one or two of his three stepsons will speak at the convention, too.

The New York Times reports that, "the decision to use Mr. Clinton this time came easily, party officials said, unlike the decision four years ago, when some advisers to Vice President Al Gore were ambivalent about giving Mr. Clinton such prominence at the convention.

The Times reports that Gore will speak, but the date and time – i.e., primetime or not – is still up-in-the-air. "Campaign and party officials said the fact that Mr. Gore would be featured significantly at all was a break from past conventions, which have not normally given much attention to losing candidates of the past," The Times reports.

Kerry Scores Points with Labor: John Kerry cancelled his longstanding plans to deliver a speech on Monday at the U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting in Boston. The Boston Police Patrolmen's Association picketed the event to protest a proposed pay raise that is lower than what the union wants, reports the Boston Globe. Kerry refused to cross the picket line. In what seemed to be a quid pro quo move, the union announced yesterday that they would not picket the Democratic convention because, according to their spokesman Thomas Nee, "the fight is with Tom Menino, not John Kerry...The fight is with Tom Menino, not the Democratic Party."

Although Kerry's move won him fervent support from the union, to the point where Nee proclaimed that Kerry was on a "pedestal" because of his decision, it also served to alienate and embarrass Boston's Democratic mayor, a former head of the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the host of the Democratic Convention when it goes to Boston in July. Menino, who has said that he will continue to support Kerry, told reporters, "Some of the mayors here are disappointed, frustrated, angered by Kerry not showing up… It's all about respect of the mayors, and there was no respect of the mayors," reports the New York Times. Menino asked reporters, "If there's a picket line at the convention hall, do you have a convention where the candidate does not show up?" reports the Globe.

Menino did manage to salvage the situation, though. When Kerry announced that he would not attend the conference as planned, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, called Menino and asked to attend in Kerry's place. Romney used the opportunity to bash Kerry, although not by name, saying, "A mayor, a governor and a president have a responsibility to make tough decisions and balance budgets. A senator doesn't, and that's a big difference. Senators don't have to balance budgets. Senators don't have to make those kinds of trade-offs. That's what the mayor has to do, and that's why I want to be here for him." Romney ended his remarks by calling Menino "a good Democrat," reports the Times, to which Menino later responded, "I love that. To be called a good Democrat by a Republican - that's great. That shows respect."

Menino was not the only mayor upset with John Kerry's decision. Mayor Douglas Palmer of Trenton, NJ, the President of the National Conference of Democratic Mayors, said "We are really where the rubber meets the road [referring to how Kerry will need local support to win the battleground states]…We're very disappointed and angry that Senator Kerry didn't come to address the mayors," reports the Globe. But some mayors supported Kerry's decision. In the New York Times, Democratic Mayor Wayne Smith, of Irvington, NJ, said, "I thought it was a wise decision not to get embroiled in the politics of what is essentially a local issue."

Race in Florida Heats Up: The presidential race in Florida is heating up, as a new poll released by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute of Connecticut shows both President Bush and John Kerry holding 43% of the vote. The Associated Press reports that 5% of the 1,209 registered voters surveyed support Ralph Nader. Without Nader, the poll tips in favor of Kerry, 46% to Bush's 44%.

As the election approaches, both candidates will be keeping their eyes on Florida and the 27 electoral votes that are up for grabs. The battle for the lead will not be an easy one, as the state remains sharply divided, just as it was in the last presidential election. In 2000, Bush won the presidency by a 537-vote margin, after the ensuing court battle was resolved in favor of Bush.

The only Democrats to carry Florida in the last three decades have been Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, despite the fact that Florida has 300,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. However, both Bush and Kerry will have their work cut out for them. As the state remains in a statistical dead heat, both candidates may have to gear up for rounds of hand shaking and baby kissing in the sunshine state. "At this stage in the campaign, Florida voters don't like either of the candidates very much," said Quinnipiac's Clay Richards.

Quote of the Day: "This was nice, President Bush wished the Iraqis God's grace on their road to democracy. And then Vice President Cheney told them to go F-themselves" – Late-night host Craig Kilborn. ("Late Late Show," courtesy of National Journal's Wake-Up Call!).