Washington Wrap
Dotty Lynch, Beth Lester, Allison Davis, and Allen Alter from the CBS News Political and Campaign '04 Units have the latest political news from Washington and from the trail.
Thursday's Headlines
*Poll Watch
*Campaign Costs Set New Record
*Candidates in the Battleground: Bush, Kerry, Edwards and Cheney Trail Bytes
*Quote of the Day
Poll Watch: State by state, poll by poll.
National Polls
Marist
Bush-Cheney 48
Kerry-Edwards 47
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 17 through 19 among 772 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 46
Kerry-Edwards 45
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 6
Poll conducted October 18 through 20 among 1,212 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 2.9 percent.
Washington Post/ABC
Bush-Cheney 50
Kerry-Edwards 47
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided not reported
Poll conducted from October 17 through 19 among 1,248 likely voters, margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.
Pew Research Center
Bush-Cheney 47
Kerry-Edwards 47
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided not reported
Poll conducted from October 15 through 19 among 1,070 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percent.
State Polls
California
Los Angeles Times
Bush-Cheney 40
Kerry-Edwards 58
Nader-Camejo not on the ballot
Undecided 2
Poll conducted October 14 through 18 among 925 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.
Colorado
Mason-Dixon
Bush-Cheney 49
Kerry-Edwards 43
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 7
Poll conducted October 14 through 16 among 625 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 51
Kerry-Edwards 45
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 14 through 17 among 815 registered voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
Electoral College Initiative/Gallup
For 39
Against 53
Undecided 8
Poll conducted October 14 through 17 among 815 registered voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
Florida
Mason-Dixon
Bush-Cheney 48
Kerry-Edwards 45
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 6
Poll conducted October 14 through 16 among 625 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
Michigan
Detroit News
Bush-Cheney 47
Kerry-Edwards 43
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 7
Poll conducted October 18 through 19 among 400 registered voters, margin of error plus or minus 5 percent.
Missouri
Mason-Dixon
Bush-Cheney 48
Kerry-Edwards 44
Nader-Camejo not asked
Undecided 7
Poll conducted October 14 through 16 among 625 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
New Hampshire
American Research Group
Bush-Cheney 47
Kerry-Edwards 46
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 6
Poll conducted October 16 through 18 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
Mason-Dixon
Bush-Cheney 48
Kerry-Edwards 45
Nader-Camejo not asked
Undecided 8
Poll conducted October 14 through 16 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
New Mexico
American Research Group
Bush-Cheney 46
Kerry-Edwards 48
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 5
Poll conducted October 16 through 18 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
North Carolina
Mason-Dixon
Bush-Cheney 51
Kerry-Edwards 43
Nader-Camejo not asked
Undecided 6
Poll conducted October 18 through 19 among 625 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
Wisconsin
American Research Group
Bush-Cheney 47
Kerry-Edwards 47
Nader-Camejo 4
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 16 through 19 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.
St. Norbert Survey Center
Bush-Cheney 43
Kerry-Edwards 48
Nader-Camejo 2
Undecided 1
Poll conducted October 4 through 13 among 401 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 5 percent.
Campaign Costs: The Center for Responsive Politics has a report out Thursday saying that the 2004 Presidential and Congressional elections will cost a record $3.9 million dollars — a 30 percent increase over the $3 billion spent in 2000.
"The presidential race alone, fueled by massive spending by President Bush, Sen. John Kerry, the political parties and a host of advocacy groups spending millions on ads and voter mobilization, will cost an unprecedented $1.2 billion or more," according to the Center's projections.
The reason for the increase? Campaign finance reform, for one. There was a big jump in "hard" money contributions to federal candidates and party committees, while the outside groups figured ways to take advantage of loopholes in the law. "The 2004 campaign is the first to take place under the new campaign finance law known as the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act. The law raised contribution limits for individuals and banned unlimited 'soft' money contributions to the national political parties." So the big money folks went elsewhere.
Candidates in the Battleground: On Thursday, Mr. Bush talks about medical liability reform in Pennsylvania and then meets with the Archbishop of Philadelphia. John Kerry goes hunting for ducks in Ohio and then hunts for voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Vice President Dick Cheney is also in Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota while John Edwards is in Iowa and then flies to Palm Beach. Here are reports from the CBS News reporters on the trail:
CBS News' Mark Knoller is with the Bush campaign:
Knoller Nugget: For the first time in more the two weeks, the president is back campaigning in Pennsylvania. With rallies in Downington and Hershey plus a late add — a meeting with the Archbishop of Philadelphia — Thursday's visit marks his 40th time in the state.
Yes, 40th. That's more visits to Pennsylvania than any other battleground state.
In fact, with the exception of his home state of Texas, and DC neighbors Maryland and Virginia, there's no state to which Mr. Bush has been more often than Pennsylvania. It reflects the political importance Mr. Bush places on this state, which he lost in the 2000 race by just over 4 percent of the vote. Two of the most recent polls in Pennsylvania show the race in a dead heat.
Some analysts say Mr. Bush no longer has a chance in the Keystone State. But in no way can the Bush campaign afford to be viewed as conceding Pennsylvania. For one thing, doing so would be a blow to the re-election bid of the state's senior senator, Arlen Specter, whom the GOP needs to win to keep control of the Senate.
Not only is Mr. Bush doing two Pennsylvania events on Thursday, but he'll be back first thing Friday for a rally in Wilkes-Barre, marking his 41st time in the state.
On Wednesday, both the White House and the Bush campaign were quick to respond to Pat Robertson's comments, saying he got it wrong.
The religious broadcaster told CNN that Mr. Bush was so supremely self-assured before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, that he said, "We're not going to have any casualties."
"I'm sure it's not accurate," says Bush senior advisor Karen Hughes. "It's just not the kind of thing he would say," she told CBS News. She said fellow advisor Karl Rove was in that Bush meeting with Robertson on Feb 10, 2003 and says the president said no such thing.
Hughes says Robertson either misheard or misunderstood.
Also Wednesday, in search of votes in rural America, the president was trumpeting his support for the second amendment to the Constitution, declaring it "gives every American individual the right to bear arms."
With two leaders of the National Rifle Association at his rally in Eau Claire, WI, Mr. Bush thanked the gun rights group for its endorsement last week. The NRA is expected to spend upwards of $20 million dollars on behalf of the president's re-election, mostly in battleground states.
CBS News' Steve Chaggaris is traveling with Senator Kerry:
Trail Byte: Not only did Kerry watch the Red Sox' big win over the New York Yankees at his Youngstown, Ohio hotel Wednesday night, but there could be serious ramifications for the city of Boston if a perfect storm comes together.
Currently, game seven of the World Series is scheduled for Sunday, October 31 at Boston's Fenway Park - two days before Election Day. If the Series is shorter than seven games or even if goes seven with no rainouts, there shouldn't be any issues.
But if the Sox and their opponents do wind up playing all seven games and there are postponed games, it could have an effect on the city of Boston on Nov. 2. For instance, if game seven is played on Monday, Nov. 1 and the Red Sox win the Series, a victory parade could be scheduled for Tuesday, the same day as Kerry's election night rally in Boston.
Or if the abovementioned perfect storm happens and there is a game seven after two rainouts, it's very possible that last game could be played in Boston at 7:30 PM on election night - at the same exact time as Kerry's Boston rally.
Now that's something no one would have ever predicted a year ago.
On to campaign matters ... Kerry went geese hunting Thursday morning outside of Youngstown before heading to Columbus, Ohio where he delivers a speech on science and innovation. He'll be accompanied by Dana Reeve, the wife of actor Christopher Reeve, a close friend of Kerry and stem cell research advocate who died a few weeks ago.
Later, Kerry and former Sen. Walter Mondale will attend a rally at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis (how's that for a trio of Democratic presidential nominees?) before overnighting in Milwaukee. On Friday, Kerry holds events in Milwaukee and Reno, Nevada and spends the night in Pueblo, Colorado.
Meantime, Wednesday, following one of the longest speeches of his campaign - a 56-minute oration on Iraq, terrorism and foreign policy in Waterloo, Iowa - Kerry flew to Pittsburgh where it felt like déjà vu.
A crowd of several thousand on a college campus in Pittsburgh, introductions by his wife Teresa and former football great Franco Harris and opening musical act Jon Bon Jovi playing an acoustic version of his classic "Livin' on Prayer" - that was the exact description of a rally Kerry had April 16 at the University of Pittsburgh. One hundred eighty seven days later, it was the same script at neighboring Carnegie Mellon University with the main difference being that there were at least twice as many as the estimated 8,000 that showed up in April.
Speaking of large Pennsylvania rallies, Kerry spokesman Mike McCurry confirmed Wednesday that former President Clinton will make his first campaign appearance with Kerry in Philadelphia next Monday.
CBS News' Bonney Kapp is traveling with Sen. Edwards.
Trail Byte: Edwards is expected to attack the Bush administration Thursday for its apparent unusually heavy use of cabinet members as campaigners, especially in battleground states.
While a campaign press release claimed Edwards would "barnstorm" Iowa on his one-day bus tour, his Thursday schedule shows only two events: a community gathering in Muscatine and a rally in Iowa City before he heads back to Florida.
On Wednesday, the Edwards theme of the day in Ohio was Mr. Bush and Cheney don't get it, Kerry and Edwards do.
Noting his own mill town background, Edwards related directly to workers who have been or are in danger of being laid off. "You really got to feel it in your gut, you know? You really got to understand what people are going through," he told the group of eight. "George Bush does not get it. He is out of touch with what you all are talking about."
Roundtable participant and local Timpken employee, Betsy Burns, concurred the President is out of touch, because to him "I'm not a person, I'm a statistic." She continued, "I have no hope for tomorrow unless you and John Kerry actually get into office and I just want you to know, I'm praying for you every day."
Following the roundtable, Edwards walked across the hall to hundreds of supporters who were treated to an Edwards stump speech. Referencing Treasury Secretary John Snow's comment last week that job losses were a "myth," Edwards declared the administration was "completely out of touch." He added, "I just met before we came out here with Timken and Hoover workers, I guarantee you for those folks this is not a myth. This is a very, very serious thing."
Edwards turned his attention from jobs and the economy to hit back at Cheney's comment that terrorists might use nuclear weapons to attack a U.S. city. "Listen, this is the height of hypocrisy. This is coming from a president and a vice president who have been completely incompetent in dealing with the situation in Iraq," he said.
The motorcade of buses then headed to New Philadelphia, a small town in Tuscarawas County, where Edwards became the first Democratic candidate on a national ticket to visit. John Glenn introduced the Senator, noting the president's lead in polls on handling the war on terror. "The president has been able to sell that and that's what stings the most. And I don't think that's all fair because his leadership there has not been that good," Glenn said.
Glenn also reminded voters of Cheney's comment last month that we would be more likely to get hit by terrorists if John Kerry were elected. "What a terrible statement to make. I think we ought to remind them what party was in power on the first big attack," he commented to cheers from the crowd.
Edwards squeezed in a stop at the Downtown Bakery in Steubenville to purchase cookies and cupcakes before holding a conversation with steelworkers at the local union hall. The candidate often claims "the American dream is on the ballot November 2nd," a point he reiterated with the laborers.
Referring to Mr. Bush, Edwards continued: "He's taken away the American dream. You know the belief that if you do what's right in this country and you work hard, you're going to get a chance to do better, and for millions of Americans he's taken that away."
CBS News' Kathy Mountcastle is traveling with Cheney and reports that Cheney attended a rally at a civic center in Traverse City, Mich. on Wednesday where 1,500 very enthusiastic attendees broke into a chant of often breaking in to chant "4 more years" and "flip flop." There was also lots of confetti at the end making for good pictures.
It was pretty much the basic Cheney stump speech. He hit Kerry hard in a couple of places, especially on the themes of national security and saying anything to get elected.
"The president's opponent --- is a man who will say and do anything to advance his cause... he's trying to scare seniors by threatening social security... John Kerry will say and do anything including making charges he knows to be false ...We know its not our job to conduct international public opinion polls, it's our job to defend America ...President Bush understands the war on terror and has a strategy to win it."
Quote of the Day: "I had no intent of voting on her ballot. I simply wanted the ballot and was going to put it in her scrapbook" -- Carolea Adams, on requesting an absentee ballot in her late mother's name (AP).