Washington Wrap

Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester and Clothilde Ewing of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.

Thursday's Headlines

* DNC Chair Says Bush Slipping with Conservatives, But CBS Numbers Say Otherwise

* Reform Endorsement Opens Door For Nader

* Kerry Visits Clinton's Home Turf

* FEC Delays Decision on 527 Groups

* Veep Watch: Two-for-One Special

Inside BASEball: Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe claims President Bush could be having trouble with his conservative base and will be fence-mending when he speaks to the American Conservative Union on Thursday night.

In a release previewing a conference call with reporters, the DNC says, "With Bush's failed economic policy resulting in record U.S. deficits, his failed policy in Iraq costing tax payers billions and a Medicare prescription drug bill with a hefty price tag, George W. Bush has some clean up to do with his right-wing, budget-hawk base."

The only problem with the DNC's claim is that the latest CBS News poll shows the numbers don't back it. In fact, Jennifer de Pinto of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit says the poll found no slippage in Bush's support among Republicans or conservatives. On Bush's overall job approval, more than 8 in 10 Republicans approve, which has been the case. And about two-thirds of conservatives continue to approve. Even on his handling of Iraq, Bush's numbers among these groups have been pretty consistent.

Democratic strategists have contended that much of the first round of the Bush campaign's ad buy was targeted toward solidifying its base of white males (by buying heavily on the Golf and History Channels, for example) rather than trying to pick up swing voters.

However, among high-profile Republicans there is some restiveness. The New York Times, reports, "Some of Mr. Bush's aides and many of his outside advisers said in interviews that conservatives who had backed the war were now badly fractured on how the administration should pursue its Iraq strategy, and they fear that the combination of the prisoner abuse scandal and the inability of American forces to put down the insurgency are taking a toll on the Bush re-election race."

"You are seeing several camps develop," William Kristol, the editor of the conservative Weekly Standard, told The Times. "'There are unapologetic hawks,' a category he puts himself in; 'we are critical of the president for failures of execution but still think it is winnable. There are loyalists, who stick to the Republican talking point that it is going well. There are supporters of the war who now have second thoughts, and there is a category of conservatives who are saying `be tough, but then get out.'"

The Times continues: "The unease among conservatives has also been given voice in recent days by a number of influential commentators. George F. Will wrote in The Washington Post on Tuesday of a series of 'failures' by the administration for which no one was held accountable, including post-war planning that was 'botched.' On Monday, the syndicated columnist Robert D. Novak wrote that there was a clear consensus among Republicans in Congress, Republican fund-raisers, contributors and others he had canvassed that Mr. Rumsfeld had to resign. But The Wall Street Journal's editorial page on Wednesday appeared to better capture the mood of many Republicans in the House, especially after the images of the beheading became public. The Journal wrote that the American public was primarily focused on 'the far larger question of American purpose' and said the real challenge for the White House is "not who wins in November but who wins in Iraq."

Reform From Pat to Ralph: The Reform Party's endorsement of Ralph Nader provides the independent candidate a shortcut to seven ballot lines, including battleground states Florida, Michigan and Colorado, and revives the argument over what his impact will be in November. Nader spokesman Kevin Zeese tells CBS News that Nader will decide "on a state by state basis," which states he will run as a Reform candidate in, but the endorsement gives him an attractive option.

However, The New York Times quotes an expert in ballot access who questions whether Nader will be able to take advantage of the Reform ballot in Florida. "Richard Winger, an expert in ballot access, said that a quirk of state election law could stymie Mr. Nader in Florida. Mr. Winger said the law required a party to have a national convention in order for its candidate to be on the ballot. The Reform Party held a telephone conference call instead of a convention to nominate Mr. Nader."

Shawn O'Hara, Reform Party USA chairman, told CBS News that they are also holding a national convention, but they are "working on a time and a place." O'Hara says Nader accepted the party's endorsement minutes after receiving it and that the two will work hand in hand to get him on as many ballots as they can.

This is the party that split in two in 2000. This branch nominated Pat Buchanan, who received 449,077 votes nationwide, and there is speculation that some of his supporters may not be as gung-ho about Nader as the national leadership. But Zeese tells CBS News that says this shows that Nader can garner support from across the political spectrum, including conservatives ... Conservatives are upset with Bush and looking for an alternative."

Kerry in Arkansas: Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is spending a couple of days in Arkansas, a November battleground state that George W. Bush won in 2000 by a scant 50,172 votes.

On Wednesday, Kerry was greeted at the Little Rock airport by former rival and potential VP choice, Wesley Clark, a retired Army general, who the AP reports, got in a dig at President Bush: "Can you imagine having a president who actually answered the country's call and went to war when our country needed him as a young man?"

The AP also reports that Kerry invoked the name of an Arkansas native who became president. "Thank you for being part of a great Democratic Party in the state of Arkansas that gave this country leadership over eight years that put America to work, grew our nation, made us stronger and when Bill Clinton left office not one young American in uniform was dying in a war anywhere in this world," said Kerry.

Kerry also took a not-so-dead-on stab at imitating the former president's raspy voice, reports CBS News' Steve Chaggaris reports. Kerry joked about the state's beloved University of Arkansas football team: "Bill Clinton said to me: 'You gotta listen, you gotta watch those Razorbacks.' So, I heeded it and I've watched a number of Razorback games because of Bill Clinton."

Later, Kerry picked up $750,000 at a fund-raiser at the Peabody Hotel. On Thursday, Kerry does a couple of events in Little Rock before flying back to Washington.

In other semi-Arkansas-related news, The New York Daily News reports that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn't want to be Kerry's running mate.

"I'm not interested," Clinton told Albany radio station WROW on Wednesday. Asked if she plans to run for re-election in 2006, Sen. Clinton said: "I sure intend to … I'm loving my job and I really hope I can continue to have the privilege of serving the people of New York."

Indecision: Federal election officials on Thursday refused to impose new restrictions on political groups that are spending millions of dollars on the presidential race, reports the AP.

Four out of the six FEC commissioners refused to step in, tabling the issue for at least three months.

The Republican Party and several campaign watchdogs have accused Democrats in particular of violating campaign finance laws by creating a shadow party, which is raising millions of dollars in soft-money and using it to air anti-Bush ads and pay for get-out-the-vote activities.

With the FEC deciding to delay action, Republicans are expected to put money into pro-Bush groups, which have not been as active as groups dedicated to defeating Bush so far. If the FEC fails to enact regulations, "it will be abundantly clear that 527s are going to play a major role in the election," Susan Hirschmann, president of the Leadership Forum, a Republican-allied political group, said in an interview with USA Today. "We do not want to see Soros and the unions and the liberal Democrat 527s go unanswered."

Meanwhile, the several groups are continuing their efforts despite the controversy. The (Democratic) Media Fund just unveiled a targeted media campaign focused on President Bush's visit to West Virginia on Thursday. The group is running a full-page newspaper ad in local papers on Thursday and a radio spot on Thursday and Friday, which focuses on jobs and healthcare. And the (Republican) Club For Growth will kickoff a million dollar TV ad campaign about 9-11, highlighting Bush's efforts "to save lives and protect liberty" by fighting terrorism. The ad shows pictures of the World Trade Center prior to the attack, and Bush among the wreckage with firefighters afterwards. The ads will run in Ohio, Arkansas, Missouri, New Hampshire and New Mexico beginning on Friday.

Veep Watch – Buy One, Get One Free: There is a two-for-one show in Boston on Thursday with Veep wannabes New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack sharing the stage at the Fleet Center for a press availability. Richardson will chair the Boston convention and Vilsack will have a speaking part as the head of the Democratic Governors Association but they may be doing a little fantasizing about a larger prime-time role.

Fellow fantasizer, Sen. John Edwards, has sent out a fundraising e-mail for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee with a more concrete two-for-one message. He says he's campaigning up a storm for Democratic Senate candidates (in Illinois, Colorado and North Carolina this month) and promises that between "now and May 31 every dollar you give means two for the DSCC."

DSCC spokesman Cara Morris says that the Senate Democratic Caucus has made a general commitment to match contributions from members campaign funds, PACs or personal money.

Quote of the Day: "I've stopped reading newspapers." –Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to soldiers in Baghdad on Thursday, explaining that instead he's reading a history of the Civil War. (AP)