Washington Wrap
Dotty Lynch, Beth Lester, Clothilde Ewing, and Dan Furman of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.
Monday's Headlines
* Convention Bounce?
* Bush is "Turning the Corner"
* Obama's race to the finish
* Trail Bytes: Kerry's Gaffe and Edwards On the Record
Watch for that Convention Bounce: Coming out of the convention, the Kerry/Edwards "Believe in America" tour continues to travel across the county. Sen. John Kerry, the no-longer-presumptive nominee, is in Michigan and Wisconsin on Monday before heading to Iowa on Tuesday. Sen. John Edwards is in Florida and Louisiana and then travels to Arkansas on Tuesday. All the while, the two are trying to cash in on good reviews – and hopefully a bounce – from the Democratic convention.
During the convention, the Kerry/Edwards camp was trying to dampen expectations for any significant bounce in the polls. And although the chattering class has yet to weigh in on whether the convention did its job, new polls out today show a mixed bag.
A new CBS News poll (conducted July 30 through August 1, margin of error 3 percent) shows Kerry/Edwards with a six-point lead over Bush/Cheney, 49 to 43. That is only slightly wider than the 49 percent to 44 percent lead the Democrats had in a poll taken July 11 to 15. The good news, even without a major bounce, is that Kerry improved his standing with veterans. In mid-July, Bush/Cheney led by 47 to 41 in that demographic. The two campaigns are now in a statistical dead heat among veterans, with Kerry/Edwards at 48 to Bush/Cheney's 47.
Another poll, from USA Today/CNN/Gallup (conducted July 30 through 31, margin of error 4 percent), finds no bounce for the challengers coming out of Boston. Indeed, the poll finds that "Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before" the convention. The change in support is still within the margin or error, meaning a statistical tie, but "it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention."
If CBS News shows virtually no change and USA Today has a small drop, then perhaps Kerry/Edwards will be distributing Newsweek's latest poll to reporters. The poll (conducted July 29 through 30, margin of error 3 percent), shows Kerry/Edwards with a 7-point lead over Bush/Cheney, 49 to 42 percent. The previous version of Newsweek's poll showed Kerry/Edwards up by only three. While those numbers are the smallest bounce in Newsweek's history of polling, it may not matter to Kerry/Edwards: that is the only poll that shows a bounce outside the margin of error.
Turning the Corner: On the heels of the Democratic National Convention, President Bush wasted no time jumping on the campaign trail, a move seen by many as an attempt to slow any momentum the Kerry-Edwards ticket would experience out of the convention. From Friday, when Kerry accepted his nomination, through Wednesday, the two presidential candidates will have each visited Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, Missouri and Iowa, reports the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, USA Today takes a look at Bush's new stump-speech mantra: "We're turning the corner, and we're not turning back," and what lines work best with the audience.
USA Today reports: "Crowd reactions to President Bush's new campaign speech provide more evidence that his management of the war on terrorism is his best political asset. Audiences cheer louder and longer for his tough-on-terror lines than for criticism of Democratic nominee John Kerry or any other issue.
"The Bush lines that elicit the most cheers: 'When it comes to better securing the homeland, to fighting the forces of evil and spreading peace, results matter…When it comes to choosing a president, results matter.'"
Bush gave his new speech five times on Friday and Saturday in Missouri, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Obama's Victory Lap: After giving the Democratic National Convention's keynote speech, Barack Obama returned to Illinois for a five-day campaign blitz on his quest for a U.S. Senate seat. The Chicago Tribune reports that Obama's 30-county, 39-city trek will end Wednesday evening with a birthday barbecue. Though the election is not until November, Obama's latest stops around the state had the feel of a coronation to some observers.
In an interview between campaign stops, Obama said, "This is all so, well, interesting. But it's all so ephemeral." He continued, "I don't know how this plays out, but there is definitely a novelty aspect to it all. The novelty wears off, and it can't stay white hot like it is right now." However, the excitement for this candidate for at least the moment is extraordinary. At each stop, enormous crowds, sometimes surpassing the total number of primary votes he received in that particular county, greeted Obama the Tribune reports. In Henry County, for example, Obama received only 248 primary votes yet his audience was easily double that.
Republicans are trying to cool the Obama fever with a "Truth Squad" that contains critiques of the candidate's left-leaning voting record. They maintain that he is far too liberal for the average Illinois voter. Republicans have been without a candidate for about five weeks since Jack Ryan announced he would withdraw from the race after embarrassing allegations by his ex-wife Jeri Ryan in their divorce papers became public. The Republican party is expected to choose replacement candidate by Tuesday.
Trail Bytes: There have been a number of times during this campaign when John Kerry has been accused of straddling the line and trying to take both sides of an issue. But getting caught cheering for the Ohio State Buckeyes in front of a University of Michigan crowd, might take the cake. CBS News' Steve Chaggaris has more on Sunday's gaffe:
Kerry spent Sunday night on a softball field outside Detroit where he displayed his prowess on the diamond - but only after he dodged a bullet about his comments on another sport shortly before the game started.
At a softball game organized by the campaign in Taylor, Mich., Kerry played on a team of local International Association of Fire Fighters union members vs. a team of local United Auto Workers members. Wearing a jersey that read "Team Kerry" he belted a drive to left field for a single during his first at-bat. He eventually scored.
In the bottom of the first inning, Kerry trotted out to play second base where he was in on all three outs. He snagged a blooper that was hit right to him for the first out and then caught two throws for two forced outs at second.
In the third inning, he had his second, and final, at-bat, where he again drove a long ball down the third base line. He eventually scored from second base a couple of batters later.
While he looked solid during the game, he found less success before with his sports references. He screwed up a joke, then blatantly pandered to the crowd after mistakenly offending fans of the University of Michigan.
Prior to his stop in Michigan, he joked at a rally in Bowling Green, Ohio, that he and Edwards were "going to give you the courageous leadership you need. We're going to take positions – we'll take the tough positions. But there's one tough position I refuse to take: I'm not choosing between the Falcons and the Rockets," Kerry told the crowd, referring to the rivalry between Bowling Green University and nearby University of Toledo.
"I'm just going to acknowledge, without doubt, there is nothing better than Buckeye football, period!" he added, talking about Ohio State and straddling the line as some of his critics says he's prone to do.
In Michigan, he tried the same joke again but couldn't remember all of the details.
"We just came from Bowling Green and I was smart enough not to pick a choice between the Falcons and the, you know, all that other teams out there. I just go for Buckeye football, that's where I'm coming out," he quipped, eliciting a chorus of boos. For a brief moment, Kerry forgot he was in Michigan, home of Ohio State's big football rival, University of Michigan.
Realizing his gaffe, he tried to reverse course and blatantly sucked up to the crowd.
"That was while I was in Ohio. Now I know I'm in the state of Michigan and you got a great big M and a powerhouse of a team."
John Edwards held a rare on the record chat on Sunday, telling reporters how overwhelming the convention was for him. He also singled out the press corps for their wandering attention spans. CBS News' Bonney Kapp has more:
John Edwards doesn't have the reputation of being particularly loose with or accessible to the press corps. An on the record chat in the back of the plane is a rarity. The only one he's had since becoming Kerry's running mate lasted three and a half minutes, literally seconds before his plane took off for Boston last week.
So when the senator came back to chat with reporters en route to Miami on Sunday night, it was an unexpected and pleasant surprise. Especially so because we had spent the last three days with more than 100 members of the press with no access on the "Believe in America" tour. Edwards was relaxed and candid – or maybe just tired, noting the tour's schedule has been "grueling."
While he didn't make any news, Edwards did share his insight into his big convention speech last week. "I thought I was ready for it but I wasn't...I was surprised by how overwhelming it was, the spectacle of it all," he said, noting the bright lights and the magnitude of the crowd. "When I spoke to John, I told him you just better be prepared, you'll be surprised."
Apparently not everyone was swept away by the hoopla. When he came off the stage, the reaction he heard from his six-year-old daughter Emma Claire was straightforward: "Dad, is the meeting over?"
Edwards says his favorite part about speaking to a crowd is watching the crowd itself. "I love just interacting with them and seeing their response." And he had a warning to the press saying, "I can see you guys," typically seated on a riser behind the crowd. "You pay no attention."
Edwards went on to finger Los Angeles Times reporter Ron Brownstein, who was not present to hear these accusations, joking "I never saw him look at the stage while I was speaking or while Kerry was speaking." He also noted Washington Post reporter Dan Balz "doesn't look that interested, but he works all the time." Maybe the Senator should stick to looking at the voters for a reaction.
Quote of the Day: "After I've seen the glamour and the glory? Thanks, guys." --Ben Affleck, after spending a week at the Democratic Nation Convention, when asked whether he has any political aspirations (Boston Herald).