Washington Wrap

Dotty Lynch, Beth Lester, Allison Davis, Lucy Kafanov, Alexandra Cosgrove and Allen Alter from the CBS News Political and Campaign '04 Units have the latest political news from Washington and from the trail.

Monday's Headlines

* Poll Watch - Tomorrow Is The Day
* Senate Watch: Louisiana and Alaska
* Ground War
* Marathon Campaigning On Election Eve
* Trail Bytes From The Bush, Kerry, Cheney and Edwards Campaigns
* Quote Of The Day

Poll Watch: Tomorrow Is The Day

National Polls
CBS/New York Times
Bush-Cheney 49%
Kerry-Edwards 46
Other 1
Undecided Poll conducted October 28 through 30 among 643 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 49%
Kerry-Edwards 49
Other 1
Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 1573 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

Zogby
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 48
Other 1.2
Undecided 2
Poll conducted October 28 through 30 among 1207 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 2.9 percent.

Marist
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 49
Nader-Camejo Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 31st among 987 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Pew Research
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 45
Other 1
Undecided 6
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 1925 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

American Research Group
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 49
Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 28 through 30 among 1258 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 2.5 percent.

NBC/Wall Street Journal
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 47
Other 1
Undecided not reported
Poll conducted October 29 through 31 among 1014 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Fox News
Bush-Cheney 46%
Kerry-Edwards 46
Other 1
Undecided 7
Poll conducted October 29 through 30 among 1200 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

State Polls
Battleground States Only
CBS News
Bush-Cheney 47%
Kerry-Edwards 48
Nader 2
Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 28 through 30 in 10 battleground states, margin of error plus or minus 8 percent.

Colorado
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 47
Other 2
Undecided 2
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

Florida
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 47%
Kerry-Edwards 48
Other 2
Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

CNN/Gallup/USA Today
Bush-Cheney 47%
Kerry-Edwards 50
No Opinion 5
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 1138 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

Iowa
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 44%
Kerry-Edwards 50
Other 1.8
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 46
Nader 2
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 27 through 30 among 1119 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

Michigan
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 45%
Kerry-Edwards 52
Other 2
Undecided 1.3
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

Minnesota
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 47%
Kerry-Edwards 49
Other 2
Undecided 1.5
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 44%
Kerry-Edwards 52
Nader 1
Other 3
Undecided 1.5
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 1078 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

New Mexico
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 49%
Kerry-Edwards 49
Other .5
Undecided 1
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

Nevada
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 50%
Kerry-Edwards 45
Other 1.7
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

Ohio
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 48%
Kerry-Edwards 44
Other 4
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 46%
Kerry-Edwards 50
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 1082 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

Pennsylvania
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 45%
Kerry-Edwards 50
Other 2
Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 50%
Kerry-Edwards 46
Undecided 4
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 1082 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

Wisconsin
Zogby
Bush-Cheney 44%
Kerry-Edwards 51
Other 3
Undecided 2
Poll conducted October 28 through 31 among 600 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percent.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 52%
Kerry-Edwards 44
Nader 1
Undecided 3
Poll conducted October 27 through 30 among 1119 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

Senate Watch: Louisiana And Alaska: The race for the Senate in Louisiana is unique. Based on Louisiana's voting laws the primary election takes place on November 2nd. This year, one Republican, Representative David Vitter, is running against two Democrats vying for second place -- Representative Chris John and state Treasurer John Kennedy. As the Louisiana Times Picayune reports Monday, "It's unclear whether the Republican front-runner will be able to top 50 percent on Tuesday to win the election outright or be forced into a runoff in December. Meanwhile, the two leading Democrats continue to jostle for second place and the chance to square off against the Republican in a contest that could decide the balance of power in the U.S. Senate." But a new Verne Kennedy poll conducted October 26 through October 28 shows Vitter inching closer to the 50 percent mark. Vitter received 48 percent in the poll of 600 voters (margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percent) while Chris John received 22percent with Kennedy trailing behind with 13 percent. If Vitter gets 50 percent of the vote on Tuesday, there is a good chance that a December 4th run-off could be avoided.

The Alaska Senate race between Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski and former Governor Tony Knowles is another key race to determine party control of the Senate. Murkowski is running for her first full term in the Senate, as her father, current Governor Frank Murkowski when he vacated the seat to run for Governor, appointed her to the Senate in 2002. The nepotism issue has followed Lisa Murkowski through this campaign. In fact, her yard signs have a big LISA on them while her last name is conveniently much smaller and hidden at the bottom of the sign. Alaska has not had a competitive Senate race in decades and they have not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1974. This race is a big newsmaker in Alaska and as the Anchorage Daily News reports Monday, "With Murkowski the only sitting Republican senator seen as vulnerable, the election has been by far the most expensive in Alaska history. The national parties and outside interests have poured in millions, primarily for advertising, leading some wags to suggest that if Murkowski and Knowles could agree to fight for another year, they might be able to trigger a boom as big as a new pipeline." Alaska polls close at 1am EST.

Ground War: As the presidential campaign winds down to its final throes, both candidates along with their parties and a range of PAC's have been busy funding one of the largest get-out-the-vote efforts ever seen by this nation.

In a number of key battleground states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa, and Florida where both candidates are sometimes polling at a near dead heat, hundreds of thousands of volunteers and paid organizers are distributing fliers, knocking on doors, and calling potential voters in order to sway them for their candidate at the last minute. The Washington Post reports that the campaigns, along with outside partisan groups, will spend $300 million and more on get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts.

In terms of funding these efforts, President George W. Bush's campaign has more money to spend, with a voter mobilization budget that runs at about $125 million, according to The Washington Post. The post also reports that Sen. John Kerry's mobilization efforts, run out of the Democratic National Committee, will have approximately $60 million to spend.

Despite the financial discrepancy between the two campaigns, the Democrats are benefiting from the large pocketbooks of a number of left-leaning PAC's, most notably America Coming together, which plans to spend about $100 million to $125 million. The AFL-CIO is also reaching out to voters in battleground states by working on phone banks, fliers, and door-to-door canvassing, and is planning to spend $45 million on these efforts. [Lansing State Journal.]

In Michigan, Democrats are contacting 25,000 voters a day while the 62,000 volunteers for the GOP are planning to have contacted 200,000 to 300,000 voters by Nov. 2, according to the Lansing State Journal. The State Journal also reports that MoveOn PAC will have 3,000 volunteers in the state while the AFL-CIO will send out 1,000 union members to visit close to 40,000 union households.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans said they have close to 100,000 volunteers who are furiously working phone banks, canvassing the state, and encouraging supporters to come to the Polls. The Washington Post reports that Republican voters in one Pennsylvania county who have not shown up to the polls by 3 p.m. will receive reminder phone calls.

Marathon Campaigning On Election Eve: President Bush hits five battleground states, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania Iowa and New Mexico and ends his day and campaign in his home state of Texas. Sen. Kerry goes from Florida to Wisconsin to Detroit to Cleveland (with Bruce Springsteen and then back to Wisconsin for the night John Edwards goes from Minnesota to Iowa then Cincinnati and down south to Pensacola and Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. Vice President Cheney may be wondering why he left Hawaii for snowy Colorado -- but maybe because he then gets to hit Las Vegas and sleep in his own bed in Jackson Hole Wyoming.

Trail Bytes

Here are reports from CBS News marathoners in the field:

CBS News' Mark Knoller is out with the Bush campaign:

Knoller Nugget: It's almost over. Unless it isn't (see 2000 presidential election). But first things first.

Beginning in Ohio and ending in his home state of Texas, the President spends 17 hours on Monday crisscrossing a good part of the nation.

It'll be near midnight by the time the day is over, and Mr. Bush will have done seven rallies in six states, all but one of them toss-ups, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico. He'll be reaching out for every vote he can get.

What his schedule shows is that the race is exceedingly tight and Mr. Bush cannot afford to take any battleground state for granted, including some he lost four years ago.

If the President doesn't win re-election, it won't be for lack of campaigning. He did eight rallies in five states over the weekend including Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida and Ohio.

In making his case to voters, the President is making leadership the key issue.

At rallies the last couple of days he's been saying that the election comes down to the question: "Whom do you trust." He says people know what HE believes and where HE stands on key issues, but that John Kerry has entered "the flip-flop hall of fame."

In Florida on Sunday, the President unveiled a new campaign riff intended to reach out to voters of all political persuasions on a number of key issues. Each line started with "if you believe" and ended with "come stand with me."

For example: "If you believe that taxes should stay low so families can pay their bill and small businesses can create new jobs," he said to applause " I ask you, come stand with me."

And he continued: "If you believe in high standards for our public schools, I ask you come stand with me." (Applause.) "…"If you believe patients and doctors should be in charge of the health care system, I ask you, come stand with me. (Applause.)

And finally, "And if you are a voter who believes that the American President should say what he means and do what he says and keep his word, I ask you to come stand with me. (Applause.)"

At each stop, the lines were crowd pleasers. As was "Stormin' Norman," the retired four-star General Norman Schwarzkopf, who commanded U.S. forces in first Gulf War. He introduced the president at a rally in Legends Field in Tampa, spring training ballpark of the New York Yankees. Schwarzkopf left no doubt what he thinks of George W. Bush and John Kerry.

"Look at the other party. You'll find they have no plan whatsoever for combating global terrorism and they no leadership whatsoever for doing the same thing."

"The difference between them and us is very simple: we do have a leader. And he knows how to go about defeating terrorism."

Earlier on Sunday in Miami, the President dotted his campaign speech with a number of Spanish words and phrases, in an effort to reach out to the sizeable Latino community, especially Cuban-Americans.

To them, Mr. Bush said: "Over the next four years, we'll continue to press hard and insure that the gift of freedom finally reaches the men and women of Cuba."

After chants of "Viva Bush," he continued: "We will not rest. We will keep the pressure on until the Cuban people enjoy the same freedoms in Havana they receive hear in America."

And in an unmistakable veiled reference to Cuban leader Fidel Castro, Bush declared: "I strongly believe the people of Cuba should be free from the tyrant." So far, Castro has outlasted nine U.S. presidents who have said much the same thing. Should Mr. Bush fail to win re-election, he could end up as Castro's tenth.

Being Halloween on Sunday, some of the President's most senior political advisors were in a Halloween state-of-mind as Air Force One landed in Cincinnati after dark.

Karl Rove, Karen Hughes, Dan Bartlett, Scott McClellan and others stepped off the presidential aircraft wearing camouflage-hunting jackets. It was an effort to mock Kerry's recent round of goose hunting in Ohio.

The staffers offered candy to reporters, doling out boxes of Air Force One M&M's from a plastic Halloween Jack-o-Lantern.

No geese were harmed or killed in the course of that Halloween masquerade.

CBS News' Steve Chaggaris is with the Kerry campaign:

Kerry Trail Byte: Election eve will be a 19-hour marathon for John Kerry on Monday as he makes six stops in four battleground states: Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.

The day began at his third church service in two days, observing All Saints' Day during a Catholic Mass in Orlando before jetting to a Milwaukee rally with rocker Jon Bon Jovi.

Kerry later heads to Detroit, where he's joined by Stevie Wonder, then to Cleveland for another rally with Bruce Springsteen. After that he's off to Toledo for a quickie airport rally and then he'll overnight in La Crosse, Wisconsin where he's scheduled to arrive at his hotel at 3 AM Eastern Time.

Spokesman Mike McCurry previewed Kerry's Election Day schedule, telling reporters that "because Wisconsin is a same-day registration state, we'll be doing a registration event" in La Crosse as the polls open.

Following that event, Kerry will fly to Boston where he'll vote and then eat lunch at the Union Oyster House, which, according to McCurry, is "a Kerry tradition on Election Day." He's expected to spend the rest of the day conducting TV interviews via satellite before speaking at his election night rally after the returns come in.

Meantime on Sunday, there was a sports undercurrent as Kerry kept an eye on the Washington Redskins-Green Bay Packers match-up, a game that has coincidentally become a potential predictor of presidential elections

For the past 17 cycles, the Redskins' game prior to the election has "determined" the outcome of the election. If the Redskins won, then the incumbent party would win on Election Day. If they lost, the challenger would win.

Well, the Packers won handily, 28-14, giving Kerry the "edge."

"I'll take anything I can get," Kerry said about the Skins' loss. "I think it's a good tradition. I think the country should stay with tradition, don't you?"

Just prior to the Redskins-Packers final score, Kerry was introduced at a Manchester, New Hampshire rally by the owners and the general manager of the Boston Red Sox, who are backing the Massachusetts Democrat.

"It's been an unbelievable four days. And over the course of the four days it's taken a while to sink in but I think I finally now am starting to really believe that the Red Sox won the World Series," said Sox General Manager Theo Epstein. "But it's been four long years and I still can't believe George Bush is still president of the United States of America."

He added, "It's only been four years but it certainly seems like 86 and I think there's something we can do about it on Tuesday."

CBS News' Josh Gross is with the Cheney campaign:

Cheney Trail Byte: 42+ 481+ 734 + 2804 nautical miles. Added together, the separate legs of Vice President Cheney's final Sunday of the campaign were the election's longest.

The day began modestly enough in front of a small, but enthusiastic crowd outside Toledo, Ohio. But when things were all said (repeatedly) and done, the Vice President had imbued thousands of the GOP faithful with the Republican message in five states, including one unimaginable even just days ago -- Hawaii.

It's not the 11th hour, but it's close, as the Vice President crammed the Hawaiian event into his schedule. The speech started at 11 PM in Honolulu (4 AM EST) and required 13 total hours of flying time to and from the mainland. None of Cheney's other events were canceled or postponed to make room for the trip. The only thing lost was a few hours of sleep and there aren't too many other places in the nation where one could draw a crowd of 10,000 excited supporters at that time of night. It was the largest crowd the Vice President has addressed during the campaign by nearly 7000 people.

"Thank you for the warm welcome. I was in the neighborhood and I thought I'd stop by and say aloha," the Vice President joked with the crowd. "It's great to be back in the state of Hawaii. And from the enthusiasm I see here this evening, there is no doubt this is Bush-Cheney country."

"I am told this is the first time in history that a national candidate has come to Hawaii so close to Election Day and I'm proud to have the distinction. I'm here for a simple reason, Hawaii is a vital state in this election and President Bush and I would be honored to have your vote."

The crowd responded so loudly, hardly anyone heard the scattered protestors before they were escorted out of the arena.

Cheney was surrounded by hundreds of flowers, entered through a rainbow of colorful balloons and was preceded by a two large men twirling flaming batons and an even larger man blowing a conch. The crowd was raucous and interrupted the Vice President several times. "Control yourselves," he asked humorously. "If you guys don't behave, the President won't let me back next time."

However, the day wasn't all flower necklaces and grass skirts. Before boarding Air Force 2 for the 50th state, Cheney still had what would normally be a very productive day. During his first two rallies of the day in Ohio and Michigan, Cheney employed the basics of his stump speech. When it comes to terrorism, Bush is strong and Kerry is weak. In terms of domestic issues, the Senator is indecisive while the President is steadfast and resolute.

At his third event in Fort Dodge, Iowa he unveiled a new trick. While neither party wants to openly use the recently aired Osama bin Laden video to their advantage, the Vice President hoped to indirectly use it against John Kerry. He used it again in Hawaii.

"John Kerry turned to the polls again just a few days ago. Right after the bin Laden tape was released, the Kerry campaign took a poll to see what his response should be," he said. "He put his finger in the air to see which way the wind was blowing."

"George Bush doesn't need a poll to know where he stands," Cheney continued. "He's a man of courage and conviction who knows how to lead America during a time of war. And we need him for four more years."

Hawaii would be a nice prize for the Republicans if they are able to win it on Tuesday. Polls have the state closer than the Democrats would like, but they haven't lost since Reagan won its four electoral votes in 1984. Before that, only Nixon had carried the state. In 2000, Bush-Cheney lost 37 percent to 56 percent.

At the end of the night, Cheney was in the state less than two hours. But those brief moments could go a long way on Tuesday.

"Once again I want to thank you for coming this evening, this is truly a night we will never forget," he said concluding his remarks. "Some candidates may take Hawaii for granted, President Bush and I take it seriously."

"Mahalo, and good night," he said as the theme to Hawaii 5-0 played him off the stage.

Book 'em, Danno.

CBS News' Bonney Kapp reports from the Edwards campaign:

Edwards Trail Byte: In the days leading up to November 2, John Edwards has been on a whirlwind tour through battleground states, offering voters a streamlined 15-minute stump speech with little variation.

It's a version in which the Senator sticks to familiar themes of hope and optimism rather than using words like "failure" and "incompetence" to describe the Bush administration as he had in the last weeks.

Edwards took his stump to five states on Sunday and will hit four on Monday, including Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida. While Hawaii is not on the schedule, Edwards did answer questions from three Hawaiian newspapers after a Sunday rally in Pennsylvania. On Monday night, he'll shake up his Ft. Lauderdale rally with a performance from musician Jimmy Buffet.

The candidate will spend Election Day in Florida before going to Boston to meet up with his running mate after polls close on the East Coast.

Edwards returned to his home state one last time before Election Day to vote early on Friday with his wife, Elizabeth. While the candidate received a polite smattering of applause, about 20 protestors waited outside the Raleigh polling place, one with a milk carton and Edwards picture that read: "Have you seen my senator?"

"That might be the deciding vote," Edwards said with a grin to reporters after he cast his ballot.

Then joined by his entire family at a rally on the state fairgrounds, Edwards delivered a sentimental speech. "I didn't come home today to give a political speech. I came home to say thank you to all of you." Reminiscing about growing up and raising his children in the state, he added, "We're like most North Carolina families. We had some joy, we had some heartache, but the truth is, North Carolina is who I am and I will always be proud of having come from North Carolina."

It was Mrs. Edwards who served as the Democrats' surrogate attack dog in her speech preceding her husband's She spoke pointedly about the President pushing responsibility onto others on a host of issues from the missing explosives in Iraq to the Abu Ghraib prison scandal to job loss. "Shame on them," she scolded.

More international press attention, however, was focused on the campaign's 727 jet mishap as it took off from the Raleigh-Durham airport Friday evening.

When an ABC sound technician swapped out a 9-volt battery in his equipment five minutes into the flight, the battery exploded in his hands, started a chemical fire, and caused the cabin to fill with noxious smoke and fumes. Seconds after the loud explosion and yells of "Fire!" Secret Service agents immediately ran back to the press section of the plane to extinguish the smoldering fire. The Senator and his entire family (except for daughter Cate, who was not on board) were not near the explosion and staffers said it was doubtful that they heard the explosion or noticed the fumes.

The plane was forced to return to Raleigh, where it was inspected by fire officials and given clearance to leave for Williamstown, West Virigina. Hundreds there waited more than five hours to hear the delayed candidate speak for less than five minutes.

Halloween came a day early on the campaign flight Saturday from Bangor, Maine, to Florida. The rear cabin was decorated by the traveling press with cobwebs, mummy and skull decorations, and a jack-o-lantern. Edwards' young son Jack, dressed as a fighter pilot, trick or treated in the press section. His more shy sister, Emma Claire, had to be escorted by her father to show off her vampire fangs to the press corps.

Quote Of The Day: "We're confident Packer fans across Wisconsin will be excited to go out and vote for the candidate who understands the 'frozen tundra of Lambeau' is not a dessert item in an expensive French restaurant." --BC04 spokesperson Scott Stanzel (Reuters)